Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alcorn State 35.2, Texas Southern 24.2 at Spinks-Casem Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Alcorn State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11 points and 59.3 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Texas Southern is 1-2, scoring 22 and allowing 44.3 points per game (-22.3 per game). Alcorn State is 2-2, scoring 33 and allowing 36.3 points per game (-3.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Southern by 12 and Alcorn State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Alcorn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alcorn State by about 8.9.
Result: Texas Southern 40, Alcorn State 43. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8 points and the total by 23.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas Southern / Alcorn State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alcorn State -2.5 → Alcorn State -3.5 | 58.5 → 55.5 | +137 / -172 |
| DraftKings | Alcorn State -2.5 → Alcorn State -3.5 | 58.5 → 55.5 | +137 / -172 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alcorn State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alcorn State -11 | 59.3 | 76% |
| Market consensus | Alcorn State -3.5 | 55.5 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Alcorn State -5 | 56.1 | 63% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alcorn State win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference +17 pts
- Margin
- model Alcorn State -11 · market Alcorn State -3.5 · difference +7.5 pts (Alcorn State view)
- Total
- model 59.3 · market 55.5 · difference +3.8
Model margin is 7.5 pts more toward Alcorn State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas Southern 24.2, Alcorn State 35.2 | Alcorn State 76%right winner | 8.0 | 23.7 |
| New formula | Texas Southern 24.5, Alcorn State 34.5 | Alcorn State 74%right winner | 7.0 | 24.0 |
Final: Texas Southern 40, Alcorn State 43. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas Southern vs Alcorn State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Texas Southern | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.3 | 24.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.7 | 23.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.42 | 5.63 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02 | 5.26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.6 | 183.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 165.2 | 171.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.2 | 139.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.4 | 202.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80 | 0.91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.10 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 0.80 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.70 | 1.27 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 41.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 40.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7% | 11.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 9.8% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.36 | 3.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.36 | 3.91 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.8 | 63.1 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7% | 48.9% |
| Passing success rate | 38.0% | 40.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5% | 20.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6% | 28.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5% | 38.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.1% | 35.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 50.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.2% | 61.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Southern schedule · Alcorn State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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