Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Prairie View A&M 29.9, Texas Southern 19.7 at Panther Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Prairie View A&M wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.2 points and 49.6 combined points.
Texas Southern is 1-0, scoring 42 and allowing 30 points per game (+12 per game). Prairie View A&M is 0-1, scoring 30 and allowing 49 points per game (-19 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Southern by 12 and Prairie View A&M by 33 about 80% of the time.
Prairie View A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Prairie View A&M by about 8.1. The game is on ESPNEWS.
Result: Texas Southern 14, Prairie View A&M 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 27.8 points and the total by 16.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas Southern / Prairie View A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Prairie View A&M -10.5 | 54.5 | +345 / -483 |
| DraftKings | Prairie View A&M -10.5 | 54.5 | +345 / -483 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Prairie View A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Prairie View A&M -10 | 49.6 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Prairie View A&M -10.5 | 54.5 | 79% |
| Blended projection | Prairie View A&M -10.5 | 54.7 | 76% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Prairie View A&M win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Prairie View A&M -10.2 · market Prairie View A&M -10.5 · difference -0.3 pts (Prairie View A&M view)
- Total
- model 49.6 · market 54.5 · difference -4.9
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas Southern 19.7, Prairie View A&M 29.9 | Prairie View A&M 75%right winner | 27.8 | 16.4 |
| New formula | Texas Southern 20.6, Prairie View A&M 35.4 | Prairie View A&M 81%right winner | 23.2 | 10.0 |
Final: Texas Southern 14, Prairie View A&M 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas Southern vs Prairie View A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Texas Southern | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.3 | 31.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.7 | 17.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.42 | 6.95 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02 | 4.75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.6 | 190.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 165.2 | 251.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.2 | 141.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.4 | 131.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.10 | 0.77 |
| Sacks per game | 0.80 | 1.54 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.70 | 0.62 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 40.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7% | 15.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8% | 9.7% |
| Havoc rate | 9.8% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9% | 11.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.36 | 3.78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.36 | 3.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.8 | 63.5 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7% | 43.4% |
| Passing success rate | 38.0% | 42.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5% | 18.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6% | 30.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5% | 42.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.1% | 32.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 56.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.2% | 48.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Southern schedule · Prairie View A&M schedule · all Week 1 projections
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