Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas Southern 33, Mississippi Valley State 24.7 at Shell Energy Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Texas Southern wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 57.6 combined points.
Mississippi Valley State is 2-4, scoring 15 and allowing 34.2 points per game (-19.2 per game). Texas Southern is 1-4, scoring 23.2 and allowing 48.4 points per game (-25.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mississippi Valley State by 14 and Texas Southern by 31 about 80% of the time.
Texas Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas Southern by about 6.2.
Result: Mississippi Valley State 38, Texas Southern 34. Mississippi Valley State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mississippi Valley State / Texas Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas Southern -14 | 56.5 → 53.5 | +421 / -620 |
| DraftKings | Texas Southern -14 | 56.5 → 53.5 | +421 / -620 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas Southern -8.5 | 57.6 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Texas Southern -14 | 53.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Texas Southern -13 | 54.3 | 81% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas Southern win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Texas Southern -8.3 · market Texas Southern -14 · difference -5.7 pts (Texas Southern view)
- Total
- model 57.6 · market 53.5 · difference +4.1
Model margin is 5.7 pts more toward Mississippi Valley State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mississippi Valley State 24.7, Texas Southern 33.0 | Texas Southern 71%wrong winner | 12.3 | 14.4 |
| New formula | Mississippi Valley State 24.8, Texas Southern 32.4 | Texas Southern 69%wrong winner | 11.6 | 14.8 |
Final: Mississippi Valley State 38, Texas Southern 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mississippi Valley State vs Texas Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.3 | 22.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.7 | 24.7 |
| Yards per play | 4.73 | 5.42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.46 | 6.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 94.5 | 180.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.4 | 165.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.9 | 187.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 238.4 | 198.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.70 | 0.80 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| Sacks per game | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20 | 1.70 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.21 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 33.2% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.7% | 45.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 10.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 12.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.1% | 11.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.31 | 3.36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 2.36 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 63.8 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.24 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.2% | 45.7% |
| Passing success rate | 32.7% | 38.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 27.2% | 16.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.6% | 30.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.5% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.4% | 38.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.6% | 42.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.5% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 49.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi Valley State schedule · Texas Southern schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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