Matchup analysis
Our model projects Wyoming 27, UTEP 15 at Sun Bowl in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Wyoming wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.5 points and 42.3 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Wyoming is 5-3 against the 132nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.5 and allowing 20 points per game (-0.5 per game). UTEP is 1-6 against the 65th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-22.2 per game).
Wyoming's struggling offense (131st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.1 points against an average defense) meets UTEP's struggling defense (138th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Wyoming puts up. Wyoming's middle-of-the-pack defense (70th) should limit UTEP's struggling offense (138th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wyoming by 35 and UTEP by 10 about 80% of the time.
UTEP gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Wyoming is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Wyoming vs UTEP: stat comparison
| Stat | Wyoming | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.5#126 | 15.1#136 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.0#34 | 37.3#134 |
| Yards per play | 5.86#85 | 5.41#118 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.48#63 | 6.48#122 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.5#37 | 164.4#77 |
| Net passing yards per game | 137.8#132 | 149.4#129 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.6#125 | 201.7#124 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 168.1#17 | 202.6#60 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#119 | 1.14#109 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.38#132 | 0.86#80 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#47 | 1.14#128 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#85 | 5.00#138 |
| Stat | Wyoming | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#97 | -0.11#137 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#86 | +0.17#122 |
| Success rate | 42.2%#78 | 35.2%#135 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7%#117 | 49.1%#134 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#46 | 11.5%#102 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4%#64 | 13.9%#115 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#96 | 11.1%#129 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7%#106 | 18.5%#137 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44#114 | 2.85#136 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.37#28 | 4.63#123 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#43 | own 29#89 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#32 | own 31#119 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.9#138 | 58.0#132 |
| Stat | Wyoming | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#29 | +0.01#105 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#129 | -0.23#137 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#97 | +0.09#100 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#59 | +0.26#127 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.4%#16 | 37.8%#119 |
| Passing success rate | 38.6%#104 | 31.0%#135 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.7%#29 | 19.5%#106 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.3%#84 | 23.0%#133 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8%#85 | 36.9%#126 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.9%#115 | 25.8%#138 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.2%#89 | 49.4%#131 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.1%#118 | 47.5%#127 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 41.9%#8 | 61.7%#82 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wyoming schedule · UTEP schedule · all Week 11 projections
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