Matchup analysis
Our model projects Northern Illinois 30, UTEP 23 at Huskie Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Northern Illinois wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.9 points and 53.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
UTEP is 1-6 against the 76th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-22.2 per game). Northern Illinois is 0-7 against the 59th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 38.6 points per game (-23.5 per game).
UTEP's struggling offense (138th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.6 points against an average defense) meets Northern Illinois's struggling defense (134th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UTEP puts up. Northern Illinois's struggling offense (129th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense) meets UTEP's struggling defense (138th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Northern Illinois puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UTEP by 16 and Northern Illinois by 29 about 80% of the time.
Northern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Illinois by about 4.8. The game is on MW+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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UTEP vs Northern Illinois: stat comparison
| Stat | UTEP | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.1#136 | 15.1#135 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.3#134 | 38.6#136 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#118 | 5.21#125 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.48#122 | 6.69#131 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.4#77 | 115.6#132 |
| Net passing yards per game | 149.4#129 | 198.0#96 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.7#124 | 229.1#135 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.6#60 | 215.0#86 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#109 | 0.86#67 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#80 | 1.00#60 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#128 | 1.14#127 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 5.00#138 | 3.29#134 |
| Stat | UTEP | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11#137 | +0.05#89 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#122 | +0.20#128 |
| Success rate | 35.2%#135 | 37.8%#126 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.1%#134 | 53.2%#137 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#102 | 11.2%#108 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#115 | 14.4%#124 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#129 | 9.7%#137 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.5%#137 | 14.4%#103 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.85#136 | 2.97#130 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.63#123 | 4.86#134 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#89 | own 27#128 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#119 | own 31#109 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.0#132 | 60.1#121 |
| Stat | UTEP | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#105 | +0.13#42 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23#137 | +0.00#106 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#100 | +0.16#128 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#127 | +0.26#126 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8%#119 | 41.8%#93 |
| Passing success rate | 31.0%#135 | 35.0%#125 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5%#106 | 18.9%#97 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.0%#133 | 23.5%#132 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.9%#126 | 42.6%#137 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.8%#138 | 33.0%#126 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.4%#131 | 61.5%#138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.5%#127 | 47.1%#129 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.7%#82 | 75.9%#132 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UTEP schedule · Northern Illinois schedule · all Week 13 projections
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