Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected San José State 30, UTEP 21.8 at Sun Bowl in Week 7. That is a solid edge: San José State wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.2 points and 51.7 combined points.
San José State is 3-3, scoring 21 and allowing 23.5 points per game (-2.5 per game). UTEP is 1-5, scoring 15.8 and allowing 39.5 points per game (-23.7 per game).
San José State's struggling offense (119th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UTEP's struggling defense (137th); that mismatch is where most of San José State's projected points come from. Expect UTEP to find it hard going: San José State's below-average defense (111th) outranks UTEP's struggling offense (137th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 14.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San José State by 31 and UTEP by 14 about 80% of the time.
UTEP gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. San José State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on MW+.
Result: San José State 24, UTEP 11. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.8 points and the total by 16.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San José State / UTEP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San José State -9.5 → San José State -6.75 | 51.25 → 46 | -315 / +250 |
| DraftKings | San José State -10 → San José State -6.5 | 52.5 → 46.5 | -270 / +220 |
| Bovada | San José State -9 → San José State -7 | 50 → 45.5 | -360 / +280 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UTEP win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | San José State -8 | 51.7 | 30% |
| Market consensus | San José State -6.5 | 46.0 | 28% |
| Blended projection | San José State -7 | 47.4 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UTEP win probability
- model 30% · market (no-vig) 28% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model San José State -8.2 · market San José State -6.75 · difference -1.4 pts (UTEP view)
- Total
- model 51.7 · market 46 · difference +5.7
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward San José State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San José State 30.0, UTEP 21.8 | San José State 70%right winner | 4.8 | 16.7 |
| New formula | San José State 29.5, UTEP 21.6 | San José State 70%right winner | 5.1 | 16.0 |
Final: San José State 24, UTEP 11. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San José State vs UTEP: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | San José State | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0#114 | 15.8#133 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.5#72 | 39.5#135 |
| Yards per play | 5.52#109 | 5.37#117 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.48#64 | 6.34#116 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.3#116 | 150.7#95 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.3#56 | 137.3#131 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.8#74 | 195.0#118 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.0#97 | 205.7#76 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#102 | 1.33#116 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#29 | 1.00#61 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67#27 | 1.17#122 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17#94 | 4.00#137 |
| Stat | San José State | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#121 | -0.20#138 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#53 | +0.18#124 |
| Success rate | 37.5%#124 | 32.3%#137 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8%#82 | 50.5%#136 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#100 | 10.1%#123 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8%#44 | 14.3%#116 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6%#58 | 11.9%#111 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9%#113 | 19.8%#137 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.68#103 | 3.24#123 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.34#33 | 4.62#120 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#98 | own 30#70 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#121 | own 33#127 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8#47 | 53.7#138 |
| Stat | San José State | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#134 | -0.11#131 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#90 | -0.30#137 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#80 | +0.08#90 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#41 | +0.31#129 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.3%#132 | 32.5%#136 |
| Passing success rate | 42.4%#73 | 32.0%#132 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0%#118 | 22.2%#130 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.0%#125 | 18.1%#138 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#52 | 38.8%#130 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.9%#120 | 24.7%#138 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%#54 | 50.0%#135 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.7%#115 | 50.0%#123 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.4%#70 | 61.5%#89 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San José State schedule · UTEP schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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