Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oklahoma 34.2, UTEP 15.3 at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Oklahoma wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.9 points and 49.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
UTEP has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Oklahoma has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect UTEP to find it hard going: Oklahoma's elite defense (5th) outranks UTEP's struggling offense (138th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.6 points against an average defense). Oklahoma's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UTEP's struggling defense (138th); that mismatch is where most of Oklahoma's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UTEP by 4 and Oklahoma by 41 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oklahoma by about 16.8. The game is on SECN+.
Result: UTEP 0, Oklahoma 51. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 32.1 points and the total by 1.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UTEP / Oklahoma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma -40.5 → Oklahoma -40.75 | 50.5 → 51.25 | — / — |
| Bovada | Oklahoma -40.5 → Oklahoma -41 | 50.5 → 51 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma -40.5 | 51.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oklahoma -19 | 49.4 | 89% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma -41 | 51.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma -37.5 | 51.8 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Oklahoma -18.9 · market Oklahoma -40.75 · difference -21.8 pts (Oklahoma view)
- Total
- model 49.4 · market 51.25 · difference -1.9
Model margin is 21.8 pts more toward UTEP than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UTEP 15.3, Oklahoma 34.2 | Oklahoma 89%right winner | 32.1 | 1.6 |
| New formula | UTEP 4.0, Oklahoma 47.2 | Oklahoma 99%right winner | 7.7 | 0.2 |
Final: UTEP 0, Oklahoma 51. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UTEP vs Oklahoma: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UTEP | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.3#99 | 26.2#79 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.4#111 | 15.5#7 |
| Yards per play | 5.29#112 | 5.56#95 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.36#35 | 4.73#6 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.2#125 | 132.5#116 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.8#70 | 236.0#55 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.1#92 | 101.6#5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 208.8#53 | 198.0#38 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67#130 | 1.00#62 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#112 | 0.85#90 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33#38 | 3.46#1 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17#95 | 2.31#104 |
| Stat | UTEP | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10#125 | -0.06#117 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#31 | -0.18#4 |
| Success rate | 34.4%#134 | 39.6%#106 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2%#51 | 32.2%#3 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4%#101 | 11.5%#94 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#17 | 10.5%#31 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#64 | 16.6%#5 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#111 | 13.4%#103 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.92#74 | 3.91#75 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66#45 | 2.90#5 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#100 | own 31#30 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#106 | own 27#11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.2#84 | 66.2#68 |
| Stat | UTEP | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#91 | -0.10#128 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.18#130 | -0.02#93 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#13 | -0.18#4 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#61 | -0.18#13 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.6%#126 | 37.7%#119 |
| Passing success rate | 30.9%#133 | 41.2%#65 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.0%#122 | 21.8%#120 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.1%#122 | 27.4%#103 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9%#44 | 25.9%#20 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.9%#131 | 40.2%#80 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.7%#4 | 28.3%#2 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.9%#84 | 72.7%#15 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.8%#47 | 46.4%#7 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UTEP schedule · Oklahoma schedule · all Week 1 projections
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