Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nevada 31.2, UTEP 22.5 at Sun Bowl in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Nevada wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 53.7 combined points.
Nevada is 1-3, scoring 27.3 and allowing 24.3 points per game (+3 per game). UTEP is 1-4, scoring 16.4 and allowing 41.4 points per game (-25 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Nevada's below-average offense (112th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.8 points against an average defense) against UTEP's struggling defense (137th). Nevada's below-average defense (105th) should limit UTEP's struggling offense (134th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 15.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nevada by 31 and UTEP by 14 about 80% of the time.
UTEP gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Nevada is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Result: Nevada 30, UTEP 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.3 points and the total by 10.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Nevada / UTEP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nevada -9.25 → Nevada -10 | 49.5 → 48.5 | -367.5 / +287.5 |
| Bovada | Nevada -9 → Nevada -10 | 49.5 → 48.5 | -360 / +280 |
| DraftKings | Nevada -9.5 → Nevada -10 | 49.5 → 48.5 | -375 / +295 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UTEP win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nevada -8.5 | 53.7 | 28% |
| Market consensus | Nevada -10 | 48.5 | 25% |
| Blended projection | Nevada -10 | 49.7 | 25% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UTEP win probability
- model 28% · market (no-vig) 25% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Nevada -8.7 · market Nevada -10 · difference +1.3 pts (UTEP view)
- Total
- model 53.7 · market 48.5 · difference +5.2
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward UTEP than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Nevada 31.2, UTEP 22.5 | Nevada 72%right winner | 8.3 | 10.7 |
| New formula | Nevada 31.4, UTEP 21.2 | Nevada 75%right winner | 6.8 | 9.6 |
Final: Nevada 30, UTEP 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Nevada vs UTEP: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Nevada | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.3#81 | 16.4#133 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3#77 | 41.4#137 |
| Yards per play | 6.13#69 | 5.59#107 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.05#35 | 6.58#121 |
| Rushing yards per game | 206.0#35 | 161.2#83 |
| Net passing yards per game | 180.3#109 | 141.6#132 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 221.0#132 | 175.8#105 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 151.8#14 | 229.4#97 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#137 | 1.60#130 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#95 | 1.00#67 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#65 | 1.00#127 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#46 | 4.00#136 |
| Stat | Nevada | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#108 | -0.18#137 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#95 | +0.24#132 |
| Success rate | 40.5%#105 | 35.8%#129 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#86 | 52.3%#137 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1%#88 | 9.7%#128 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#35 | 16.2%#131 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#100 | 10.8%#128 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#77 | 19.9%#137 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.27#58 | 2.89#131 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.22#99 | 4.62#124 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#61 | own 30#68 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#118 | own 34#132 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0#95 | 54.2#137 |
| Stat | Nevada | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#33 | -0.07#127 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15#126 | -0.32#137 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#83 | +0.07#89 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#91 | +0.43#138 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#17 | 34.0%#128 |
| Passing success rate | 31.0%#132 | 38.2%#105 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6%#107 | 22.6%#131 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.5%#74 | 19.4%#137 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5%#93 | 43.6%#136 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8%#90 | 28.8%#133 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1%#71 | 53.3%#136 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.8%#67 | 41.7%#132 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.0%#56 | 65.2%#94 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nevada schedule · UTEP schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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