Matchup analysis
Our model projects Nevada 27, Hawai'i 22 at Mackay Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Nevada wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 48.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Hawai'i is 2-6 against the 93rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.8 and allowing 24.5 points per game (-3.7 per game). Nevada is 3-4 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.3 and allowing 22 points per game (+4.3 per game).
Nevada's below-average defense (93rd) should limit Hawai'i's below-average offense (117th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.3 points against an average defense). Nevada's below-average offense (106th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense) meets Hawai'i's below-average defense (102nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Nevada puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Hawai'i by 18 and Nevada by 27 about 80% of the time.
Nevada gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Nevada by about 2.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Hawai'i vs Nevada: stat comparison
| Stat | Hawai'i | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.8#117 | 26.3#88 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.5#72 | 22.0#54 |
| Yards per play | 5.29#121 | 5.61#104 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.20#108 | 4.78#13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 103.9#137 | 190.7#44 |
| Net passing yards per game | 269.9#23 | 173.0#119 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 174.5#97 | 181.4#103 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.9#56 | 140.6#4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#53 | 1.71#137 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#86 | 0.43#128 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25#120 | 2.43#42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#114 | 1.29#35 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#78 | +0.00#114 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#116 | -0.00#44 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#82 | 40.4%#105 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1%#105 | 37.6%#30 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#114 | 12.0%#86 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7%#88 | 9.4%#13 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2%#113 | 15.5%#32 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3%#99 | 14.8%#108 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.56#109 | 4.39#44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.43#115 | 4.02#91 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#117 | own 30#71 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#26 | own 32#125 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.6#17 | 64.9#77 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#93 | +0.08#73 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#69 | -0.08#125 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#91 | -0.01#47 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19#116 | -0.01#42 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.9%#52 | 47.2%#39 |
| Passing success rate | 39.3%#95 | 33.5%#131 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5%#92 | 21.8%#128 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#108 | 31.0%#72 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0%#104 | 26.2%#30 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#82 | 40.9%#71 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%#82 | 30.2%#9 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.7%#131 | 59.4%#85 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.4%#123 | 63.2%#89 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Hawai'i schedule · Nevada schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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