Matchup analysis
Our model projects Hawai'i 34, Sacramento State 17 at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: Hawai'i wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17 points and 50.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Sacramento State is 1-7 against the 136th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.3 and allowing 32.9 points per game (-17.6 per game). Hawai'i is 2-6 against the 100th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.8 and allowing 24.5 points per game (-3.7 per game).
Hawai'i's below-average defense (102nd) should limit Sacramento State's struggling offense (139th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 12.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Hawai'i's below-average offense (117th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.3 points against an average defense) against Sacramento State's struggling defense (139th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacramento State by 6 and Hawai'i by 40 about 80% of the time.
Hawai'i gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Hawai'i by about 14.9. The game is on MW+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Sacramento State vs Hawai'i: stat comparison
| Stat | Sacramento State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.3#134 | 20.8#117 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.9#127 | 24.5#72 |
| Yards per play | 4.98#132 | 5.29#121 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.23#112 | 6.20#108 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.5#129 | 103.9#137 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.6#98 | 269.9#23 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.1#104 | 174.5#97 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.8#48 | 200.9#56 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#101 | 0.75#53 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#104 | 0.75#86 |
| Sacks per game | 1.13#130 | 1.25#120 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.13#88 | 2.50#114 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#134 | +0.07#78 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#76 | +0.13#116 |
| Success rate | 38.8%#120 | 41.9%#82 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#79 | 44.1%#105 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.4%#135 | 11.1%#114 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2%#120 | 12.7%#88 |
| Havoc rate | 10.5%#134 | 12.2%#113 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6%#121 | 14.3%#99 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.88#134 | 3.56#109 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.22#105 | 4.43#115 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#97 | own 27#117 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#71 | own 26#26 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.9#90 | 70.6#17 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#118 | +0.03#93 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.12#131 | +0.10#69 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#84 | +0.08#91 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#76 | +0.19#116 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.6%#107 | 45.9%#52 |
| Passing success rate | 35.4%#123 | 39.3%#95 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.0%#130 | 18.5%#92 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.7%#127 | 27.7%#108 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.4%#32 | 32.0%#104 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.1%#130 | 40.0%#82 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.9%#92 | 39.8%#82 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 33.4%#138 | 45.7%#131 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.7%#111 | 71.4%#123 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacramento State schedule · Hawai'i schedule · all Week 13 projections
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