Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wyoming 23, Hawai'i 21.9 at War Memorial Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Wyoming wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 44.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Hawai'i is 1-2, scoring 20.7 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-5 per game). Wyoming is 1-2, scoring 14.7 and allowing 24 points per game (-9.3 per game).
Wyoming's below-average defense (91st) should limit Hawai'i's struggling offense (130th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.2 points against an average defense). Expect Wyoming to find it hard going: Hawai'i's struggling defense (121st) outranks Wyoming's struggling offense (138th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 15.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Hawai'i by 21 and Wyoming by 24 about 80% of the time.
Wyoming gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Hawai'i would be favoured by 1. The game is on CW.
Result: Hawai'i 10, Wyoming 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.9 points and the total by 7.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Hawai'i / Wyoming) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Hawai'i -4.25 → Hawai'i -2.25 | 45.25 → 44.5 | -142.5 / +120 |
| DraftKings | Hawai'i -5.5 → Hawai'i -2.5 | 44.5 | -125 / +105 |
| Bovada | Hawai'i -3 → Hawai'i -2 | 46 → 44.5 | -160 / +135 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wyoming win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wyoming -1 | 44.9 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Hawai'i -2 | 44.5 | 44% |
| Blended projection | Hawai'i -1.5 | 45.8 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wyoming win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 44% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Wyoming -1.1 · market Hawai'i -2.25 · difference +3.4 pts (Wyoming view)
- Total
- model 44.9 · market 44.5 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 3.4 pts more toward Wyoming than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Hawai'i 21.9, Wyoming 23.0 | Wyoming 53%right winner | 15.9 | 7.9 |
| New formula | Hawai'i 21.0, Wyoming 23.9 | Wyoming 57%right winner | 14.1 | 7.9 |
Final: Hawai'i 10, Wyoming 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Hawai'i vs Wyoming: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Hawai'i | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.7#118 | 14.7#132 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7#93 | 24.0#85 |
| Yards per play | 4.67#132 | 5.57#103 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.53#117 | 5.73#92 |
| Rushing yards per game | 94.7#134 | 155.3#88 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.3#50 | 158.7#121 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 193.0#119 | 216.3#128 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.7#103 | 154.0#25 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#32 | 2.33#135 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#99 | 0.67#109 |
| Sacks per game | 0.67#129 | 1.00#122 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#117 | 1.00#52 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#104 | -0.01#111 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#109 | +0.05#78 |
| Success rate | 37.9%#122 | 40.4%#107 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#115 | 43.8%#108 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.2%#129 | 13.5%#61 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0%#113 | 11.2%#66 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#99 | 12.6%#101 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6%#115 | 16.0%#121 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.52#117 | 3.24#129 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.26#98 | 3.59#48 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#117 | own 31#67 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#19 | own 29#73 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.7#12 | 56.3#127 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#109 | +0.05#85 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#94 | -0.07#111 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#111 | -0.04#45 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#90 | +0.11#93 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#99 | 44.0%#84 |
| Passing success rate | 37.6%#105 | 38.5%#101 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6%#107 | 18.3%#94 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.9%#94 | 31.4%#73 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.6%#75 | 31.0%#84 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4%#87 | 36.4%#111 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.5%#120 | 40.0%#85 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.0%#127 | 54.6%#108 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 78.8%#123 | 49.7%#32 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Hawai'i schedule · Wyoming schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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