Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stanford 27.2, Hawai'i 25.3 at Stanford Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Stanford wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 52.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Hawai'i has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Stanford has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Hawai'i's below-average offense (117th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.3 points against an average defense) meets Stanford's below-average defense (115th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Hawai'i puts up. Stanford's below-average offense (105th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Hawai'i's below-average defense (102nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Stanford puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Hawai'i by 21 and Stanford by 24 about 80% of the time.
Stanford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Hawai'i would be favoured by 0.2. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.1 points and the total by 11.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Hawai'i / Stanford) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stanford -3 → Stanford -4.75 | 50.5 → 48.5 | +157.5 / -187.5 |
| Bovada | Stanford -3 → Stanford -5 | 50.5 → 48.5 | +145 / -170 |
| DraftKings | Stanford -3 → Stanford -4.5 | 48.5 | +170 / -205 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stanford win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Stanford -2 | 52.4 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Stanford -5 | 48.5 | 63% |
| Blended projection | Stanford -4.5 | 49.6 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stanford win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 63% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Stanford -1.9 · market Stanford -4.75 · difference -2.8 pts (Stanford view)
- Total
- model 52.4 · market 48.5 · difference +3.9
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Hawai'i than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Hawai'i 25.3, Stanford 27.2 | Stanford 55%right winner | 8.1 | 11.6 |
| New formula | Hawai'i 19.3, Stanford 32.8 | Stanford 78%right winner | 3.5 | 11.9 |
Final: Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Hawai'i vs Stanford: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Hawai'i | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.0#56 | 18.8#123 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1#61 | 29.2#97 |
| Yards per play | 6.04#56 | 5.04#127 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.18#106 | 6.12#103 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.5#128 | 113.3#130 |
| Net passing yards per game | 305.2#6 | 213.9#86 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.5#53 | 135.3#27 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.2#78 | 282.1#134 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31#103 | 1.17#96 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.69#118 | 0.58#128 |
| Sacks per game | 2.23#48 | 1.83#87 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.23#97 | 3.58#133 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#77 | -0.11#127 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#74 | +0.06#99 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#90 | 36.5%#126 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#70 | 42.7%#84 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#72 | 9.2%#133 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6%#76 | 13.0%#90 |
| Havoc rate | 11.4%#102 | 9.4%#131 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#36 | 15.3%#124 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.05#57 | 3.57#113 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#50 | 3.69#48 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#57 | own 25#135 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#60 | own 32#119 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8#29 | 64.9#88 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13#133 | -0.04#101 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#35 | -0.17#129 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#93 | -0.06#32 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#60 | +0.14#115 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.2%#117 | 37.1%#122 |
| Passing success rate | 43.5%#42 | 35.9%#118 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1%#111 | 18.1%#65 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6%#32 | 24.0%#128 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#88 | 33.6%#117 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.5%#15 | 39.8%#84 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2%#52 | 43.8%#105 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.4%#77 | 44.4%#132 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.2%#62 | 49.1%#15 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Hawai'i schedule · Stanford schedule · all Week 1 projections
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