Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona State 34.7, Hawai'i 18 at Mountain America Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Arizona State wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.7 points and 52.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Hawai'i is 1-4, scoring 17.6 and allowing 24.8 points per game (-7.2 per game). Arizona State is 2-2, scoring 33.3 and allowing 31.8 points per game (+1.5 per game).
Expect Hawai'i to find it hard going: Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack defense (75th) outranks Hawai'i's struggling offense (130th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.4 points against an average defense). Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Hawai'i's struggling defense (121st); that mismatch is where most of Arizona State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Hawai'i by 6 and Arizona State by 39 about 80% of the time.
Arizona State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona State by about 14.6. The game is on FS1.
Result: Hawai'i 12, Arizona State 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.3 points and the total by 10.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Hawai'i / Arizona State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona State -21.25 → Arizona State -20.75 | 50.75 → 51.25 | +925 / -1775 |
| DraftKings | Arizona State -20.5 | 50.5 → 51.5 | +950 / -1650 |
| Bovada | Arizona State -22 → Arizona State -21 | 51 | +900 / -1900 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arizona State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona State -16.5 | 52.7 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Arizona State -21 | 51.3 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Arizona State -20 | 52.0 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arizona State win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona State -16.7 · market Arizona State -20.75 · difference -4.1 pts (Arizona State view)
- Total
- model 52.7 · market 51.25 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 4.1 pts more toward Hawai'i than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Hawai'i 18.0, Arizona State 34.7 | Arizona State 86%right winner | 1.3 | 10.7 |
| New formula | Hawai'i 17.0, Arizona State 35.0 | Arizona State 88%right winner | 0.0 | 10.0 |
Final: Hawai'i 12, Arizona State 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Hawai'i vs Arizona State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Hawai'i | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.6#128 | 33.3#56 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8#79 | 31.8#121 |
| Yards per play | 5.18#124 | 6.58#50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.28#111 | 5.61#73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 102.0#137 | 160.8#84 |
| Net passing yards per game | 261.8#40 | 287.0#22 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 174.4#104 | 165.8#89 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 224.0#92 | 194.8#57 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60#52 | 1.25#109 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#124 | 0.50#115 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40#112 | 1.75#83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.80#123 | 2.00#87 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#89 | +0.00#110 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#111 | +0.07#90 |
| Success rate | 39.0%#117 | 42.2%#81 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4%#126 | 39.0%#53 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1%#123 | 16.1%#17 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5%#106 | 12.4%#91 |
| Havoc rate | 11.7%#117 | 12.9%#93 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#105 | 15.6%#117 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.08#127 | 3.92#84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.46#116 | 3.83#71 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#132 | own 32#39 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#27 | own 32#121 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.2#29 | 68.0#48 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#103 | -0.02#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#76 | +0.02#92 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#103 | +0.03#68 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18#107 | +0.11#95 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9%#77 | 39.6%#108 |
| Passing success rate | 37.6%#112 | 44.4%#61 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2%#89 | 16.5%#65 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2%#106 | 34.8%#44 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1%#77 | 30.0%#76 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.0%#94 | 31.5%#127 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.3%#110 | 38.2%#73 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 35.9%#137 | 60.0%#89 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.8%#117 | 64.3%#89 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Hawai'i schedule · Arizona State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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