Matchup analysis
Our model projects New Mexico 32, Air Force 20 at University Stadium (NM) in Week 13. That is a solid edge: New Mexico wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.8 points and 52.4 combined points.
Air Force is 5-2 against the 116th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+7.5 per game). New Mexico is 6-1 against the 131st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37 and allowing 11.3 points per game (+25.7 per game).
Expect Air Force to find it hard going: New Mexico's strong defense (34th) outranks Air Force's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense). New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Air Force's below-average defense (88th); that mismatch is where most of New Mexico's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Air Force by 11 and New Mexico by 34 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour New Mexico by about 9.7. The game is on CW.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Air Force vs New Mexico: stat comparison
| Stat | Air Force | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4#71 | 37.0#19 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9#42 | 11.3#1 |
| Yards per play | 5.68#97 | 5.75#91 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.06#96 | 5.27#45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 341.1#1 | 219.9#19 |
| Net passing yards per game | 68.7#138 | 141.4#131 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.3#52 | 107.1#9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.0#21 | 200.0#54 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#35 | 0.57#36 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#71 | 2.71#1 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#115 | 2.86#15 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.71#6 | 2.43#109 |
| Stat | Air Force | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#31 | +0.07#76 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#77 | -0.12#6 |
| Success rate | 48.5%#22 | 41.3%#95 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8%#69 | 34.7%#10 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#113 | 13.7%#44 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#67 | 11.2%#60 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#101 | 18.9%#3 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.0%#1 | 15.3%#117 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.64#31 | 3.95#86 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07#97 | 3.21#20 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#63 | own 40#1 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#69 | own 25#6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.1#9 | 62.9#98 |
| Stat | Air Force | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.22#7 | +0.10#59 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#43 | +0.04#92 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#77 | -0.10#10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#82 | -0.13#16 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.2%#5 | 42.2%#89 |
| Passing success rate | 35.7%#121 | 39.2%#96 |
| Run stuff rate | 9.7%#1 | 16.5%#62 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.6%#99 | 31.4%#66 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7%#59 | 25.4%#19 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.4%#6 | 40.0%#83 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.2%#63 | 37.4%#54 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.1%#57 | 66.7%#44 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.9%#61 | 45.9%#15 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Air Force schedule · New Mexico schedule · all Week 13 projections
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