Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Mexico 28.6, Central Michigan 20.6 at University Stadium (NM) in Week 1. That is a solid edge: New Mexico wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8 points and 49.1 combined points.
Central Michigan has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. New Mexico has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Central Michigan to find it hard going: New Mexico's strong defense (34th) outranks Central Michigan's struggling offense (127th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18 points against an average defense). New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Central Michigan's below-average defense (99th); that mismatch is where most of New Mexico's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Michigan by 15 and New Mexico by 31 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour New Mexico by about 5.9. The game is on FS1.
Result: Central Michigan 7, New Mexico 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23 points and the total by 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Central Michigan / New Mexico) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico -12.5 → New Mexico -11.25 | 49 → 47.25 | +370 / -507.5 |
| Bovada | New Mexico -12.5 → New Mexico -11 | 49 → 47 | +400 / -575 |
| DraftKings | New Mexico -12.5 → New Mexico -11.5 | 47.5 | +340 / -440 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Mexico win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Mexico -8 | 49.1 | 70% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico -11.5 | 47.3 | 80% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico -11 | 48.4 | 77% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Mexico win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 80% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model New Mexico -8 · market New Mexico -11.25 · difference -3.2 pts (New Mexico view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 47.25 · difference +1.9
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Central Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Michigan 20.6, New Mexico 28.6 | New Mexico 70%right winner | 23.0 | 4.1 |
| New formula | Central Michigan 20.1, New Mexico 35.2 | New Mexico 81%right winner | 15.9 | 10.2 |
Final: Central Michigan 7, New Mexico 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central Michigan vs New Mexico: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Central Michigan | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5#106 | 27.1#73 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.5#55 | 22.3#46 |
| Yards per play | 5.36#109 | 6.06#54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.75#63 | 5.50#46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.5#58 | 173.7#66 |
| Net passing yards per game | 147.2#127 | 210.9#89 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.0#55 | 131.8#22 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.6#70 | 234.7#99 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#71 | 1.25#102 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38#30 | 1.00#77 |
| Sacks per game | 2.23#53 | 2.67#19 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.85#82 | 2.50#114 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00#89 | +0.03#71 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#44 | +0.02#77 |
| Success rate | 42.3%#73 | 41.8%#80 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.5%#55 | 39.4%#43 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#104 | 12.7%#61 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3%#104 | 10.4%#29 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#49 | 12.5%#68 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#106 | 11.5%#53 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.75#92 | 4.06#56 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.42#21 | 3.19#13 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#73 | own 29#91 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#85 | own 31#96 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.9#123 | 63.4#107 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#100 | +0.02#73 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#53 | +0.03#69 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#86 | -0.04#39 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07#34 | +0.08#99 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#100 | 42.9%#72 |
| Passing success rate | 42.7%#52 | 40.8%#72 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.6%#76 | 14.5%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2%#109 | 30.7%#72 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5%#53 | 27.6%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.6%#122 | 39.3%#91 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.5%#96 | 41.7%#83 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.3%#114 | 58.7%#85 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.8%#23 | 60.6%#73 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Michigan schedule · New Mexico schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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