Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Mexico 32.9, New Mexico State 20.5 at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: New Mexico wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.3 points and 53.4 combined points.
New Mexico is 2-1, scoring 38 and allowing 9.3 points per game (+28.7 per game). New Mexico State is 1-2, scoring 29 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+3.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.4 points against an average defense) against New Mexico State's below-average defense (116th). New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) should limit New Mexico State's below-average offense (113th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico by 35 and New Mexico State by 10 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. New Mexico is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: New Mexico 42, New Mexico State 18. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.7 points and the total by 6.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Mexico / New Mexico State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico -12.25 → New Mexico -11.5 | 49 → 47.5 | -482.5 / +360 |
| DraftKings | New Mexico -12.5 → New Mexico -11.5 | 49.5 → 47.5 | -455 / +350 |
| Bovada | New Mexico -12 → New Mexico -11.5 | 48.5 → 47.5 | -510 / +370 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Mexico State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Mexico -12.5 | 53.4 | 21% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico -11.5 | 47.5 | 21% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico -11.5 | 48.8 | 21% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Mexico State win probability
- model 21% · market (no-vig) 21% · difference +0 pts
- Margin
- model New Mexico -12.3 · market New Mexico -11.5 · difference -0.8 pts (New Mexico State view)
- Total
- model 53.4 · market 47.5 · difference +5.9
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward New Mexico than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Mexico 32.9, New Mexico State 20.5 | New Mexico 79%right winner | 11.7 | 6.6 |
| New formula | New Mexico 31.7, New Mexico State 21.1 | New Mexico 76%right winner | 13.4 | 7.2 |
Final: New Mexico 42, New Mexico State 18. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | New Mexico | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.0#40 | 29.0#85 |
| Points allowed per game | 9.3#8 | 25.7#94 |
| Yards per play | 5.13#120 | 6.76#42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.00#8 | 5.66#88 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.7#40 | 148.0#99 |
| Net passing yards per game | 125.0#132 | 284.7#31 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 93.7#18 | 130.7#60 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 119.7#9 | 239.3#108 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#10 | 1.00#90 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.67#2 | 1.00#70 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#18 | 1.33#102 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.33#134 | 1.33#69 |
| Stat | New Mexico | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#98 | +0.09#72 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13#12 | +0.06#82 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#95 | 42.8%#80 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2%#21 | 41.6%#92 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1%#93 | 12.2%#92 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.7%#12 | 12.3%#84 |
| Havoc rate | 18.2%#13 | 12.6%#100 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.7%#83 | 14.2%#100 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.15#82 | 4.09#85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15#91 | 3.99#74 |
| Average starting field position | own 43#1 | own 25#134 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#4 | own 32#115 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#79 | 64.0#88 |
| Stat | New Mexico | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#47 | +0.08#68 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09#117 | +0.07#81 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.13#14 | -0.01#59 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#24 | +0.12#95 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.1%#50 | 47.4%#48 |
| Passing success rate | 32.8%#129 | 41.2%#90 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4%#65 | 16.4%#66 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.0%#92 | 35.6%#44 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.4%#41 | 29.6%#77 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5%#107 | 55.0%#16 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#49 | 43.9%#105 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.6%#71 | 59.3%#94 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | — | 59.3%#69 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico schedule · New Mexico State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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