Matchup analysis
Our model projects New Mexico 32, San José State 16 at CEFCU Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: New Mexico wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.3 points and 48.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
New Mexico is 6-1 against the 129th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37 and allowing 11.3 points per game (+25.7 per game). San José State is 4-4 against the 121st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.4 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-2.1 per game).
New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over San José State's below-average defense (100th); that mismatch is where most of New Mexico's projected points come from. Expect San José State to find it hard going: New Mexico's strong defense (34th) outranks San José State's struggling offense (121st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico by 39 and San José State by 6 about 80% of the time.
San José State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. New Mexico is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on MW+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Mexico / San José State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico -14.5 | 41.5 | -687.5 / +477.5 |
| FanDuel | New Mexico -14.5 | 41.5 | -780 / +530 |
| theScore Bet | New Mexico -15.5 | 42.5 | -700 / +450 |
| BetMGM | New Mexico -14.5 | 41.5 | -650 / +500 |
| DraftKings | New Mexico -14.5 | 42.5 | -675 / +490 |
| Pinnacle | New Mexico -14.5 | 41.5 | -669 / +472 |
| Bovada | New Mexico -15 | 42 | -675 / +460 |
| BetRivers | New Mexico -14 | 41.5 | -715 / +480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | New Mexico -14.5 | 41.5 | -700 / +475 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San José State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Mexico -16.5 | 48.5 | 14% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico -14.5 | 41.5 | 16% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico -15 | 43.4 | 16% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San José State win probability
- model 14% · market (no-vig) 16% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model New Mexico -16.3 · market New Mexico -14.5 · difference -1.8 pts (San José State view)
- Total
- model 48.5 · market 41.5 · difference +7.0
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies San José State 15%.
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward New Mexico than the market.
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New Mexico vs San José State: stat comparison
| Stat | New Mexico | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.0#19 | 20.4#118 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.3#1 | 22.5#56 |
| Yards per play | 5.75#91 | 5.52#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.27#45 | 5.36#52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.9#19 | 140.8#108 |
| Net passing yards per game | 141.4#131 | 219.0#76 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 107.1#9 | 164.8#89 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.0#54 | 222.8#96 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#36 | 0.88#73 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.71#1 | 1.13#42 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86#15 | 3.63#4 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#109 | 2.25#97 |
| Stat | New Mexico | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#76 | -0.04#128 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12#6 | +0.02#55 |
| Success rate | 41.3%#95 | 37.1%#130 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.7%#10 | 41.7%#75 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#44 | 11.5%#101 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#60 | 10.9%#47 |
| Havoc rate | 18.9%#3 | 15.1%#42 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#117 | 15.3%#118 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.95#86 | 3.71#101 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21#20 | 3.19#17 |
| Average starting field position | own 40#1 | own 28#102 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#6 | own 30#100 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.9#98 | 65.1#74 |
| Stat | New Mexico | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#59 | -0.08#130 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#92 | +0.00#105 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10#10 | +0.03#69 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13#16 | +0.00#48 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.2%#89 | 34.5%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 39.2%#96 | 40.2%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#62 | 18.8%#96 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#66 | 22.4%#136 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.4%#19 | 28.5%#55 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#83 | 31.2%#133 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4%#54 | 37.7%#59 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#44 | 54.5%#110 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.9%#15 | 54.9%#44 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico schedule · San José State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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