Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oklahoma 28.3, New Mexico 23.1 at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) in Week 3. That is a lean: Oklahoma wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.2 points and 51.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
New Mexico is 2-0, scoring 54 and allowing 7 points per game (+47 per game). Oklahoma (No. 24) is 1-1, scoring 30.5 and allowing 8.5 points per game (+22 per game).
Oklahoma's elite defense (5th) should limit New Mexico's strong offense (39th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Oklahoma's strong offense (27th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.7 points against an average defense) against New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico by 17 and Oklahoma by 28 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oklahoma by about 3.1. The game is on ESPNEWS.
Result: New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.8 points and the total by 31.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Mexico / Oklahoma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma -23.5 → Oklahoma -21.25 | 48.25 → 45.5 | +1050 / -2300 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma -23.5 → Oklahoma -21.5 | 48.5 → 45.5 | +1100 / -2100 |
| Bovada | Oklahoma -23.5 → Oklahoma -21 | 48 → 45.5 | +1000 / -2500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oklahoma -5 | 51.4 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma -21.5 | 45.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma -18.5 | 47.0 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -28 pts
- Margin
- model Oklahoma -5.2 · market Oklahoma -21.25 · difference -16.0 pts (Oklahoma view)
- Total
- model 51.4 · market 45.5 · difference +5.9
Model margin is 16.0 pts more toward New Mexico than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Mexico 23.1, Oklahoma 28.3 | Oklahoma 63%right winner | 2.8 | 31.4 |
| New formula | New Mexico 14.3, Oklahoma 35.4 | Oklahoma 91%right winner | 13.1 | 29.7 |
Final: New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Mexico vs Oklahoma: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | New Mexico | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 54.0#7 | 30.5#72 |
| Points allowed per game | 7.0#10 | 8.5#13 |
| Yards per play | 5.88#84 | 6.18#74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.24#4 | 4.42#30 |
| Rushing yards per game | 255.5#15 | 154.0#90 |
| Net passing yards per game | 150.5#123 | 216.5#82 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 107.5#44 | 157.5#100 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 57.5#3 | 85.5#4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#23 | 1.00#81 |
| Takeaways per game | 3.00#2 | 0.00#124 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00#7 | 3.00#16 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#93 | 2.00#82 |
| Stat | New Mexico | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#75 | +0.06#83 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#28 | -0.00#58 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#68 | 41.9%#90 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.7%#41 | 37.0%#36 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#69 | 15.0%#29 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#63 | 9.9%#39 |
| Havoc rate | 15.9%#45 | 16.2%#39 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#62 | 13.8%#81 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.32#67 | 4.08#81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.27#104 | 2.60#8 |
| Average starting field position | own 44#1 | own 31#73 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#12 | own 30#90 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#42 | 60.0#101 |
| Stat | New Mexico | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#29 | +0.04#87 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#104 | +0.09#72 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#78 | +0.00#74 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.14#22 | -0.00#60 |
| Rushing success rate | 61.8%#5 | 44.4%#73 |
| Passing success rate | 38.1%#98 | 38.0%#99 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#55 | 20.9%#108 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2%#74 | 30.6%#79 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.8%#42 | 30.8%#85 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2%#55 | 41.7%#72 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 20.8%#9 | 25.0%#20 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.3%#47 | 47.8%#120 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | — | 40.6%#21 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico schedule · Oklahoma schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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