Matchup analysis
Our model projects Nevada 30, Northern Illinois 21 at Huskie Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Nevada wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 51 combined points.
Nevada is 3-4 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.3 and allowing 22 points per game (+4.3 per game). Northern Illinois is 0-7 against the 55th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 38.6 points per game (-23.5 per game).
Nevada's below-average offense (106th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Northern Illinois's struggling defense (134th); that mismatch is where most of Nevada's projected points come from. Expect Northern Illinois to find it hard going: Nevada's below-average defense (93rd) outranks Northern Illinois's struggling offense (129th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nevada by 32 and Northern Illinois by 13 about 80% of the time.
Northern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Nevada is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on MW+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Nevada vs Northern Illinois: stat comparison
| Stat | Nevada | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.3#88 | 15.1#135 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0#54 | 38.6#136 |
| Yards per play | 5.61#104 | 5.21#125 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.78#13 | 6.69#131 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.7#44 | 115.6#132 |
| Net passing yards per game | 173.0#119 | 198.0#96 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.4#103 | 229.1#135 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 140.6#4 | 215.0#86 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.71#137 | 0.86#67 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#128 | 1.00#60 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#42 | 1.14#127 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#35 | 3.29#134 |
| Stat | Nevada | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00#114 | +0.05#89 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#44 | +0.20#128 |
| Success rate | 40.4%#105 | 37.8%#126 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#30 | 53.2%#137 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#86 | 11.2%#108 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.4%#13 | 14.4%#124 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#32 | 9.7%#137 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#108 | 14.4%#103 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.39#44 | 2.97#130 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.02#91 | 4.86#134 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#71 | own 27#128 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#125 | own 31#109 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9#77 | 60.1#121 |
| Stat | Nevada | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#73 | +0.13#42 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08#125 | +0.00#106 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#47 | +0.16#128 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#42 | +0.26#126 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2%#39 | 41.8%#93 |
| Passing success rate | 33.5%#131 | 35.0%#125 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#128 | 18.9%#97 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0%#72 | 23.5%#132 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.2%#30 | 42.6%#137 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.9%#71 | 33.0%#126 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.2%#9 | 61.5%#138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.4%#85 | 47.1%#129 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.2%#89 | 75.9%#132 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nevada schedule · Northern Illinois schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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