Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Middle Tennessee 26, Nevada 23.8 at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Middle Tennessee wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 49.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Nevada is 1-1, scoring 28 and allowing 17 points per game (+11 per game). Middle Tennessee is 1-1, scoring 32 and allowing 21 points per game (+11 per game).
Nevada's below-average offense (117th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense) meets Middle Tennessee's struggling defense (129th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Nevada puts up. Nevada's below-average defense (83rd) should limit Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (121st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nevada by 20 and Middle Tennessee by 25 about 80% of the time.
Middle Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Middle Tennessee by about 0.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.8 points and the total by 2.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Nevada / Middle Tennessee) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nevada -6 → Nevada -3.75 | 50.25 → 50.5 | -200 / +165 |
| Bovada | Nevada -5.5 → Nevada -4 | 51 → 50.5 | -220 / +180 |
| DraftKings | Nevada -6.5 → Nevada -3.5 | 49.5 → 50.5 | -180 / +150 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Middle Tennessee win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Middle Tennessee -2 | 49.7 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Nevada -3.5 | 50.5 | 36% |
| Blended projection | Nevada -3 | 51.2 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Middle Tennessee win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 36% · difference +20 pts
- Margin
- model Middle Tennessee -2.2 · market Nevada -3.75 · difference +6.0 pts (Middle Tennessee view)
- Total
- model 49.7 · market 50.5 · difference -0.8
Model margin is 6.0 pts more toward Middle Tennessee than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Nevada 23.8, Middle Tennessee 26.0 | Middle Tennessee 56%right winner | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| New formula | Nevada 25.2, Middle Tennessee 24.6 | Nevada 52%wrong winner | 7.6 | 2.8 |
Final: Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Nevada vs Middle Tennessee: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Nevada | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0#86 | 32.0#67 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.0#52 | 21.0#72 |
| Yards per play | 6.61#51 | 6.89#42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.86#46 | 5.76#100 |
| Rushing yards per game | 252.5#17 | 151.5#93 |
| Net passing yards per game | 174.0#108 | 244.5#59 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.5#107 | 145.0#87 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 175.5#53 | 163.0#41 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.50#133 | 0.50#56 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#69 | 0.00#132 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#27 | 0.00#136 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.00#6 | 0.50#28 |
| Stat | Nevada | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#99 | +0.07#79 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#51 | +0.11#111 |
| Success rate | 43.0%#74 | 43.5%#67 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5%#105 | 42.2%#98 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#63 | 13.4%#56 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.2%#24 | 11.9%#82 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#53 | 12.2%#105 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#24 | 11.0%#34 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.45#50 | 4.07#83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.11#94 | 4.15#97 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#96 | own 28#107 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#66 | own 28#64 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.5#85 | 57.5#113 |
| Stat | Nevada | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.28#6 | +0.08#63 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.26#131 | +0.05#78 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#48 | +0.14#115 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#71 | +0.09#92 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.2%#23 | 50.0%#45 |
| Passing success rate | 30.8%#129 | 45.2%#61 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.9%#69 | 14.5%#33 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5%#59 | 32.2%#61 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4%#81 | 27.7%#61 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.1%#86 | 35.0%#101 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#85 | 27.3%#28 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 83.3%#11 | 66.7%#60 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#73 | 66.3%#95 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nevada schedule · Middle Tennessee schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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