Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nevada 26, Air Force 24.6 at Mackay Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Nevada wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Air Force is 1-1, scoring 33 and allowing 19 points per game (+14 per game). Nevada is 1-2, scoring 25.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+5 per game).
Air Force's below-average offense (85th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.9 points against an average defense) meets Nevada's below-average defense (85th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Air Force puts up. Nevada's below-average offense (114th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.1 points against an average defense) meets Air Force's below-average defense (102nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Nevada puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Air Force by 21 and Nevada by 24 about 80% of the time.
Nevada gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Air Force would be favoured by 0.7. The game is on FS1.
Result: Air Force 36, Nevada 33. Air Force won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Air Force / Nevada) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Air Force -4.25 → Air Force -5.25 | 48.75 → 50.5 | -207.5 / +175 |
| DraftKings | Air Force -4.5 | 48.5 → 50.5 | -230 / +190 |
| Bovada | Air Force -4 → Air Force -6 | 49 → 50.5 | -185 / +160 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nevada win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nevada -1.5 | 50.5 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Air Force -5 | 50.5 | 35% |
| Blended projection | Air Force -4 | 51.3 | 39% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nevada win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 35% · difference +19 pts
- Margin
- model Nevada -1.4 · market Air Force -5.25 · difference +6.7 pts (Nevada view)
- Total
- model 50.5 · market 50.5 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 6.7 pts more toward Nevada than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Air Force 24.6, Nevada 26.0 | Nevada 54%wrong winner | 4.4 | 18.5 |
| New formula | Air Force 24.5, Nevada 26.7 | Nevada 56%wrong winner | 5.2 | 17.8 |
Final: Air Force 36, Nevada 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Air Force vs Nevada: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Air Force | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.0#61 | 25.3#98 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0#53 | 20.3#61 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#90 | 6.04#82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#100 | 4.89#40 |
| Rushing yards per game | 322.5#3 | 202.0#44 |
| Net passing yards per game | 108.0#134 | 174.7#109 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 106.5#28 | 171.3#99 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 197.0#65 | 174.0#46 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#44 | 2.67#137 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#26 | 0.67#98 |
| Sacks per game | 0.50#133 | 2.33#42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#11 | 0.33#7 |
| Stat | Air Force | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#32 | -0.05#123 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#25 | +0.03#69 |
| Success rate | 46.2%#38 | 40.6%#104 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.2%#47 | 41.4%#88 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.0%#118 | 11.7%#100 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#83 | 8.1%#9 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1%#68 | 13.3%#86 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.8%#10 | 11.0%#31 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.58#42 | 4.54#47 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.72#122 | 4.05#79 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#128 | own 29#86 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#103 | own 29#83 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.0#21 | 62.3#98 |
| Stat | Air Force | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#27 | +0.11#54 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.27#30 | -0.24#134 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#46 | -0.01#58 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#28 | +0.08#88 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.5%#16 | 47.9%#43 |
| Passing success rate | 45.5%#55 | 32.1%#130 |
| Run stuff rate | 9.9%#7 | 19.4%#104 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.1%#107 | 31.6%#71 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3%#63 | 31.1%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.2%#15 | 40.0%#88 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.1%#76 | 35.6%#59 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.0%#39 | 75.1%#22 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.2%#93 | 50.5%#47 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Air Force schedule · Nevada schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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