Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nevada 26.8, San José State 21.2 at Mackay Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Nevada wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
San José State is 4-3, scoring 21.4 and allowing 21.7 points per game (-0.3 per game). Nevada is 2-4, scoring 26 and allowing 23.5 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Expect San José State to find it hard going: Nevada's below-average defense (93rd) outranks San José State's struggling offense (121st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19 points against an average defense). Nevada's below-average offense (106th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense) meets San José State's below-average defense (100th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Nevada puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San José State by 17 and Nevada by 28 about 80% of the time.
Nevada gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Nevada by about 3.5. The game is on MW+.
Result: San José State 13, Nevada 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.4 points and the total by 6.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San José State / Nevada) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nevada -6 | 46.5 | +185 / -230 |
| Opening line | Nevada -5.5 | 45.5 | +160 / -192 |
| DraftKings | Nevada -6 | 46.5 | +190 / -230 |
| FanDuel | Nevada -5.5 | 46.5 | +176 / -215 |
| BetRivers | Nevada -5.5 | 46.5 | +165 / -215 |
| BetMGM | Nevada -6 | 45.5 | +185 / -225 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nevada win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nevada -5.5 | 47.9 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Nevada -6 | 46.5 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Nevada -6 | 47.7 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nevada win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Nevada -5.6 · market Nevada -6 · difference -0.4 pts (Nevada view)
- Total
- model 47.9 · market 46.5 · difference +1.4
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San José State 21.2, Nevada 26.8 | Nevada 64%right winner | 9.4 | 6.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: San José State 13, Nevada 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San José State vs Nevada: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | San José State | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.4#113 | 17.6#128 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.5#121 | 27.5#87 |
| Yards per play | 6.39#30 | 5.32#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.06#96 | 5.94#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.5#120 | 165.3#73 |
| Net passing yards per game | 300.5#7 | 152.0#125 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.6#75 | 160.6#66 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 246.9#117 | 223.3#80 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#135 | 1.75#134 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#100 | 0.92#87 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#105 | 1.50#106 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#5 | 1.50#40 |
| Stat | San José State | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#70 | -0.13#131 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#97 | +0.03#84 |
| Success rate | 43.5%#53 | 37.0%#124 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2%#77 | 43.3%#93 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#80 | 11.6%#93 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#69 | 11.2%#41 |
| Havoc rate | 8.7%#132 | 10.7%#117 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4%#50 | 13.2%#99 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.20#126 | 2.95#134 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.38#119 | 4.34#115 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#121 | own 30#55 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#127 | own 29#49 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.8#58 | 59.6#131 |
| Stat | San José State | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#59 | +0.02#78 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#76 | -0.31#136 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#52 | +0.07#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#118 | -0.01#62 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#35 | 36.8%#125 |
| Passing success rate | 40.3%#79 | 35.6%#120 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4%#71 | 17.2%#51 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3%#59 | 24.2%#125 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.8%#60 | 27.6%#36 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7%#35 | 34.2%#125 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.2%#47 | 39.9%#58 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.2%#96 | 46.4%#128 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.3%#76 | 59.7%#67 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San José State schedule · Nevada schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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