Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia 32.6, Western Kentucky 18.4 at Sanford Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Georgia wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.2 points and 50.9 combined points.
Western Kentucky is 0-1, scoring 14 and allowing 49 points per game (-35 per game). Georgia (No. 2) is 1-0, scoring 63 and allowing 3 points per game (+60 per game).
Expect Western Kentucky to find it hard going: Georgia's elite defense (4th) outranks Western Kentucky's below-average offense (108th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23 points against an average defense). Georgia's elite offense (3rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Western Kentucky's struggling defense (121st); that mismatch is where most of Georgia's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Kentucky by 8 and Georgia by 37 about 80% of the time.
Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia by about 12.1. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Western Kentucky 20, Georgia 70. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 35.8 points and the total by 39.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Kentucky / Georgia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia -37.5 → Georgia -40.25 | 53.25 → 55.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Georgia -35.5 → Georgia -40.5 | 52.5 → 55.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Georgia -39.5 → Georgia -40 | 54 → 56 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia -14 | 50.9 | 82% |
| Market consensus | Georgia -40.5 | 55.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Georgia -36 | 55.8 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Georgia -14.2 · market Georgia -40.25 · difference -26.0 pts (Georgia view)
- Total
- model 50.9 · market 55.75 · difference -4.9
Model margin is 26.0 pts more toward Western Kentucky than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Kentucky 18.4, Georgia 32.6 | Georgia 82%right winner | 35.8 | 39.1 |
| New formula | Western Kentucky 5.4, Georgia 51.8 | Georgia 100%right winner | 3.6 | 32.8 |
Final: Western Kentucky 20, Georgia 70. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Kentucky vs Georgia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5#49 | 32.1#28 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8#49 | 17.6#10 |
| Yards per play | 6.17#41 | 5.81#73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.77#65 | 5.07#15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.6#96 | 186.1#44 |
| Net passing yards per game | 282.3#14 | 227.1#67 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 186.5#103 | 94.1#1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.7#91 | 211.2#55 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31#104 | 0.79#29 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#91 | 0.86#88 |
| Sacks per game | 1.38#112 | 1.36#114 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.77#68 | 1.36#27 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00#88 | +0.10#33 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#49 | -0.06#38 |
| Success rate | 42.7%#58 | 47.4%#17 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.2%#27 | 39.1%#37 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#31 | 12.9%#53 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2%#97 | 8.8%#4 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2%#77 | 11.9%#86 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.3%#79 | 12.3%#78 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19#39 | 5.01#5 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.20#14 | 3.98#84 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#110 | own 29#83 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#70 | own 27#8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.5#33 | 71.1#18 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#55 | +0.04#60 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#99 | +0.16#24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#58 | -0.13#9 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#54 | 0.00#69 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.9%#53 | 47.1%#33 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#62 | 47.8%#14 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8%#83 | 20.0%#100 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.3%#24 | 31.7%#51 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3%#49 | 25.2%#16 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0%#25 | 47.0%#23 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.8%#35 | 36.8%#34 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.0%#40 | 78.9%#3 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.8%#4 | 61.8%#78 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Kentucky schedule · Georgia schedule · all Week 2 projections
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