Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Indiana 41, Western Kentucky 20.3 at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Indiana wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.6 points and 61.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Western Kentucky is 0-2, scoring 17 and allowing 59.5 points per game (-42.5 per game). Indiana (No. 4) is 2-0, scoring 53.5 and allowing 8 points per game (+45.5 per game).
Indiana's elite defense (8th) should limit Western Kentucky's below-average offense (92nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Indiana's elite offense (8th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 39.1 points against an average defense) against Western Kentucky's struggling defense (133rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Kentucky by 2 and Indiana by 43 about 80% of the time.
Indiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Indiana by about 18.5. The game is on Peacock.
Result: Western Kentucky 0, Indiana 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.4 points and the total by 23.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Kentucky / Indiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana -44.25 → Indiana -44.75 | 59.5 → 59.25 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Indiana -44.5 | 59.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Indiana -44 → Indiana -45 | 59.5 → 59 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana -20.5 | 61.3 | 91% |
| Market consensus | Indiana -45 | 59.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Indiana -41 | 59.4 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana win probability
- model 91% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Indiana -20.6 · market Indiana -44.75 · difference -24.1 pts (Indiana view)
- Total
- model 61.3 · market 59.25 · difference +2.0
Model margin is 24.1 pts more toward Western Kentucky than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Kentucky 20.3, Indiana 41.0 | Indiana 91%right winner | 17.4 | 23.3 |
| New formula | Western Kentucky 10.5, Indiana 50.7 | Indiana 99%right winner | 2.2 | 23.2 |
Final: Western Kentucky 0, Indiana 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Kentucky vs Indiana: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.0#125 | 53.5#8 |
| Points allowed per game | 59.5#138 | 8.0#11 |
| Yards per play | 4.21#134 | 8.16#13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.49#137 | 4.72#42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.0#85 | 219.5#38 |
| Net passing yards per game | 165.5#114 | 217.0#80 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 269.0#137 | 99.0#30 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 215.0#85 | 170.0#49 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#131 | 0.00#11 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#122 | 1.50#32 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00#138 | 3.00#21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#119 | 1.00#44 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13#132 | +0.14#42 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.48#138 | +0.02#68 |
| Success rate | 35.1%#127 | 44.5%#57 |
| Success rate allowed | 58.8%#138 | 39.3%#56 |
| Explosive play rate | 6.4%#137 | 15.0%#30 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 22.1%#138 | 11.6%#72 |
| Havoc rate | 4.4%#138 | 11.8%#110 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0%#114 | 13.0%#63 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.38#61 | 4.72#32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 6.46#138 | 3.51#51 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#94 | own 40#4 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#124 | own 27#50 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 77.0#12 | 53.5#130 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.22#136 | +0.09#58 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06#113 | +0.25#29 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.45#137 | -0.01#69 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.51#137 | +0.04#78 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.1%#123 | 49.1%#47 |
| Passing success rate | 35.8%#111 | 64.3%#7 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.8%#107 | 16.5%#61 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0%#114 | 37.5%#27 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 61.5%#138 | 28.4%#66 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.2%#68 | 63.2%#10 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 60.0%#138 | 31.0%#43 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 83.3%#13 | 74.0%#34 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 100.0%#136 | 57.6%#64 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Kentucky schedule · Indiana schedule · all Week 3 projections
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