Matchup analysis
Our model projects Western Kentucky 26, Kennesaw State 24 at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Western Kentucky wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 49.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Kennesaw State is 2-6 against the 88th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-2.4 per game). Western Kentucky is 3-5 against the 97th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.3 and allowing 31.1 points per game (-9.8 per game).
Kennesaw State's below-average offense (118th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Western Kentucky's below-average defense (107th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kennesaw State puts up. Western Kentucky's below-average offense (115th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense) meets Kennesaw State's below-average defense (103rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Western Kentucky puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kennesaw State by 20 and Western Kentucky by 25 about 80% of the time.
Western Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Kentucky by about 0.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky: stat comparison
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.0#104 | 21.3#114 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4#83 | 31.1#119 |
| Yards per play | 5.67#98 | 5.19#126 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.94#89 | 6.11#103 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.6#112 | 148.9#99 |
| Net passing yards per game | 231.4#63 | 221.1#74 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.0#75 | 189.3#112 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 224.1#98 | 185.1#36 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#61 | 0.86#69 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#127 | 0.57#120 |
| Sacks per game | 0.86#135 | 1.29#119 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#23 | 2.14#96 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#94 | -0.01#119 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#89 | -0.01#38 |
| Success rate | 43.2%#68 | 38.4%#124 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.4%#99 | 39.2%#41 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9%#117 | 10.8%#120 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#79 | 12.5%#87 |
| Havoc rate | 11.4%#123 | 13.1%#93 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3%#14 | 14.1%#98 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.06#75 | 3.62#105 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.06#95 | 4.11#102 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#133 | own 28#111 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#92 | own 31#104 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3#73 | 71.3#12 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#84 | -0.08#129 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#93 | +0.05#85 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#46 | +0.04#76 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#108 | -0.07#31 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4%#79 | 38.3%#118 |
| Passing success rate | 43.1%#57 | 34.4%#128 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1%#124 | 19.8%#112 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8%#95 | 30.6%#78 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.9%#109 | 29.0%#63 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.6%#67 | 44.5%#38 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6%#55 | 34.1%#28 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.8%#93 | 58.1%#92 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.7%#110 | 67.1%#107 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kennesaw State schedule · Western Kentucky schedule · all Week 13 projections
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