Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Kentucky 30.2, New Mexico State 26.6 at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Western Kentucky wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 56.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Western Kentucky is 1-3, scoring 21.5 and allowing 41 points per game (-19.5 per game). New Mexico State is 1-3, scoring 26.3 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-3.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Western Kentucky's below-average offense (98th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.3 points against an average defense) against New Mexico State's struggling defense (129th). New Mexico State's struggling offense (122nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.5 points against an average defense) meets Western Kentucky's struggling defense (121st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points New Mexico State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Kentucky by 26 and New Mexico State by 19 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Western Kentucky is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Western Kentucky 13, New Mexico State 34. New Mexico State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 24.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Kentucky / New Mexico State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico State -1.25 → New Mexico State -1.5 | 53.5 → 55.75 | +102.5 / -122.5 |
| Bovada | New Mexico State -1 → New Mexico State -1.5 | 53.5 → 56 | +100 / -120 |
| DraftKings | New Mexico State -1.5 | 53.5 → 55.5 | +105 / -125 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Mexico State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Kentucky -3.5 | 56.7 | 41% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico State -1.5 | 55.8 | 53% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico State -0.5 | 56.2 | 52% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Mexico State win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Western Kentucky -3.6 · market New Mexico State -1.5 · difference -5.1 pts (New Mexico State view)
- Total
- model 56.7 · market 55.75 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 5.1 pts more toward Western Kentucky than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Kentucky 30.2, New Mexico State 26.6 | Western Kentucky 59%wrong winner | 24.6 | 9.7 |
| New formula | Western Kentucky 30.2, New Mexico State 26.7 | Western Kentucky 59%wrong winner | 24.5 | 9.9 |
Final: Western Kentucky 13, New Mexico State 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Western Kentucky | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.5#116 | 26.3#90 |
| Points allowed per game | 41.0#137 | 29.8#114 |
| Yards per play | 5.18#121 | 6.58#51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.05#132 | 5.92#93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 142.8#109 | 149.8#105 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.8#86 | 279.5#28 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 219.0#132 | 165.8#95 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 214.8#82 | 219.3#86 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#115 | 1.50#121 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.25#134 | 0.75#95 |
| Sacks per game | 0.75#136 | 1.50#102 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#85 | 1.75#80 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#126 | +0.09#74 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#127 | +0.10#101 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#125 | 41.7%#90 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0%#134 | 42.5%#89 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4%#131 | 12.7%#79 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.8%#136 | 13.5%#103 |
| Havoc rate | 9.1%#136 | 12.3%#106 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.0%#105 | 14.9%#104 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#73 | 3.61#108 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.30#134 | 4.34#106 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#83 | own 24#137 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#110 | own 36#137 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#41 | 65.3#72 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.18#137 | +0.10#67 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#96 | +0.05#83 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#105 | +0.04#78 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#124 | +0.16#105 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8%#115 | 44.3%#74 |
| Passing success rate | 37.8%#111 | 40.5%#88 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1%#128 | 17.5%#83 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8%#76 | 34.8%#45 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.4%#118 | 31.4%#89 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4%#56 | 51.9%#17 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.6%#105 | 43.4%#109 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.7%#30 | 52.5%#112 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 86.7%#132 | 67.9%#102 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Kentucky schedule · New Mexico State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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