Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Kentucky 30.1, Delaware 26.6 at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Western Kentucky wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 56.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Delaware is 3-4, scoring 28.3 and allowing 28.4 points per game (-0.1 per game). Western Kentucky is 3-4, scoring 21.3 and allowing 30.6 points per game (-9.3 per game).
Delaware's below-average offense (84th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Western Kentucky's below-average defense (107th); that mismatch is where most of Delaware's projected points come from. Western Kentucky's below-average offense (115th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense) meets Delaware's struggling defense (125th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Western Kentucky puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Delaware by 19 and Western Kentucky by 26 about 80% of the time.
Western Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Kentucky by about 1.4. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Delaware 35, Western Kentucky 21. Delaware won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 17.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Delaware / Western Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Kentucky -2.5 | 55.5 | +114 / -135 |
| Opening line | Delaware -2.5 | 57.5 | -130 / +108 |
| DraftKings | Western Kentucky -2.5 | 55.5 | +114 / -135 |
| FanDuel | Western Kentucky -2.5 | 55.5 | +112 / -134 |
| BetRivers | Western Kentucky -2.5 | 55.5 | +107 / -132 |
| BetMGM | Western Kentucky -2.5 | 55.5 | +115 / -150 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Kentucky -3.5 | 56.7 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Western Kentucky -2.5 | 55.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Western Kentucky -2.5 | 55.9 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Kentucky win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Western Kentucky -3.5 · market Western Kentucky -2.5 · difference +1.0 pts (Western Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 56.7 · market 55.5 · difference +1.2
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Western Kentucky than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Delaware 26.6, Western Kentucky 30.1 | Western Kentucky 59%wrong winner | 17.5 | 0.7 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Delaware 35, Western Kentucky 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Delaware vs Western Kentucky: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Delaware | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.0#57 | 29.5#49 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0#116 | 22.8#49 |
| Yards per play | 5.95#65 | 6.17#41 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.33#117 | 5.77#65 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.3#117 | 146.6#96 |
| Net passing yards per game | 298.5#8 | 282.3#14 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.0#83 | 186.5#103 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.5#118 | 228.7#91 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#78 | 1.31#104 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.15#60 | 0.85#91 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92#74 | 1.38#112 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08#90 | 1.77#68 |
| Stat | Delaware | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#78 | +0.00#88 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#116 | -0.02#49 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#66 | 42.7%#58 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#90 | 38.2%#27 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4%#98 | 13.7%#31 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#81 | 13.2%#97 |
| Havoc rate | 11.4%#103 | 12.2%#77 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#60 | 12.3%#79 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70#97 | 4.19#39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.00#86 | 3.20#14 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#80 | own 28#110 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#99 | own 30#70 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.9#13 | 69.5#33 |
| Stat | Delaware | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#105 | +0.05#55 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#56 | -0.04#99 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#73 | -0.01#58 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#122 | -0.02#54 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.1%#69 | 44.9%#53 |
| Passing success rate | 43.3%#45 | 41.3%#62 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3%#104 | 18.8%#83 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.6%#100 | 34.3%#24 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.4%#126 | 28.3%#49 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.4%#44 | 47.0%#25 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#86 | 36.8%#35 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.2%#68 | 66.0%#40 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.9%#52 | 40.8%#4 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Delaware schedule · Western Kentucky schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.