Matchup analysis
Our model projects Florida International 27, Missouri State 20 at Pitbull Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Florida International wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.8 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Missouri State is 3-5 against the 108th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 30.9 points per game (-6.5 per game). Florida International is 3-4 against the 137th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+3.8 per game).
Expect Missouri State to find it hard going: Florida International's middle-of-the-pack defense (76th) outranks Missouri State's below-average offense (116th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.4 points against an average defense). Florida International's struggling offense (126th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.1 points against an average defense) meets Missouri State's struggling defense (128th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida International puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri State by 16 and Florida International by 29 about 80% of the time.
Florida International gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida International by about 4.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Missouri State vs Florida International: stat comparison
| Stat | Missouri State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4#98 | 20.1#122 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.9#118 | 16.3#21 |
| Yards per play | 5.97#73 | 5.42#115 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.29#115 | 4.93#21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 142.7#107 | 133.4#115 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.4#61 | 241.3#50 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.1#106 | 132.0#40 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 262.4#129 | 165.4#15 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#114 | 1.14#111 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#100 | 1.00#61 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#118 | 2.00#73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#78 | 1.00#21 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#81 | -0.03#124 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#112 | -0.05#27 |
| Success rate | 42.8%#70 | 39.5%#115 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#114 | 38.1%#33 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#78 | 12.0%#88 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#86 | 12.0%#77 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6%#78 | 15.0%#44 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#65 | 13.0%#61 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.99#81 | 2.95#132 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23#106 | 2.93#6 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#130 | own 31#52 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 35#138 | own 32#123 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.9#99 | 69.1#35 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#62 | -0.07#126 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#88 | +0.03#95 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#83 | -0.03#40 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19#115 | -0.06#33 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5%#26 | 37.6%#124 |
| Passing success rate | 37.9%#111 | 41.6%#68 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#89 | 19.1%#102 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#82 | 32.2%#57 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#91 | 26.1%#27 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7%#101 | 48.2%#23 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.0%#117 | 28.1%#3 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.8%#126 | 36.0%#137 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.6%#81 | 27.8%#1 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri State schedule · Florida International schedule · all Week 10 projections
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