Matchup analysis
Our model projects Missouri State 27, New Mexico State 25 at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Missouri State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 51.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
New Mexico State is 3-5 against the 114th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.5 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-3.8 per game). Missouri State is 3-5 against the 108th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 30.9 points per game (-6.5 per game).
New Mexico State's struggling offense (125th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense) meets Missouri State's struggling defense (128th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points New Mexico State puts up. Missouri State's below-average offense (116th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.4 points against an average defense) meets New Mexico State's below-average defense (110th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico State by 21 and Missouri State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field New Mexico State would be favoured by 0.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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New Mexico State vs Missouri State: stat comparison
| Stat | New Mexico State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.5#111 | 24.4#98 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3#82 | 30.9#118 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#71 | 5.97#73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.42#56 | 6.29#115 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.7#79 | 142.7#107 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.1#73 | 232.4#61 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.9#38 | 185.1#106 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.3#93 | 262.4#129 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.43#131 | 1.14#114 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#74 | 0.71#100 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#43 | 1.29#118 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#55 | 1.86#78 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#92 | +0.07#81 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#62 | +0.12#112 |
| Success rate | 41.7%#89 | 42.8%#70 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1%#40 | 44.5%#114 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6%#69 | 12.3%#78 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#71 | 12.5%#86 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6%#62 | 13.6%#78 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4%#102 | 13.1%#65 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.61#106 | 3.99#81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.00#89 | 4.23#106 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#105 | own 27#130 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#134 | own 35#138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#86 | 62.9#99 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#67 | +0.09#62 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#109 | +0.04#88 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#58 | +0.06#83 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#63 | +0.19#115 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4%#80 | 48.5%#26 |
| Passing success rate | 36.8%#116 | 37.9%#111 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8%#30 | 18.3%#89 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#48 | 30.4%#82 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6%#58 | 31.0%#91 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.9%#90 | 36.7%#101 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%#84 | 44.0%#117 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.0%#107 | 47.8%#126 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.1%#72 | 61.6%#81 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico State schedule · Missouri State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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