Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Delaware 29.8, Missouri State 25.8 at Delaware Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Delaware wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 55.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Missouri State is 2-4, scoring 22.2 and allowing 30.5 points per game (-8.3 per game). Delaware is 2-4, scoring 22.8 and allowing 26.8 points per game (-4 per game).
Missouri State's struggling offense (119th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.3 points against an average defense) meets Delaware's struggling defense (122nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri State puts up. Delaware's below-average offense (105th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Missouri State's struggling defense (124th); that mismatch is where most of Delaware's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri State by 19 and Delaware by 27 about 80% of the time.
Delaware gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Delaware by about 1.9. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Missouri State 38, Delaware 61. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19 points and the total by 43.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Missouri State / Delaware) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Delaware -3 | 54.5 | +132 / -162 |
| Opening line | Delaware -2.5 | 50.5 | +118 / -142 |
| DraftKings | Delaware -3 | 54.5 | +136 / -162 |
| FanDuel | Delaware -3.5 | 54.5 | +132 / -160 |
| BetRivers | Delaware -3 | 53.5 | +138 / -175 |
| BetMGM | Delaware -3 | 54.5 | +130 / -155 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 24, 10:39 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Delaware win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Delaware -4 | 55.6 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Delaware -3 | 54.5 | 59% |
| Blended projection | Delaware -3 | 55.0 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Delaware win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 59% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Delaware -4 · market Delaware -3 · difference +1.0 pts (Delaware view)
- Total
- model 55.6 · market 54.5 · difference +1.1
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Delaware than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Missouri State 25.8, Delaware 29.8 | Delaware 60%right winner | 19.0 | 43.4 |
| New formula | Missouri State 25.3, Delaware 30.3 | Delaware 63%right winner | 18.0 | 43.3 |
Final: Missouri State 38, Delaware 61. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Missouri State vs Delaware: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Missouri State | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.2#108 | 22.8#103 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5#116 | 26.8#98 |
| Yards per play | 5.71#98 | 5.82#92 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19#107 | 5.89#91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.8#100 | 115.2#132 |
| Net passing yards per game | 215.0#82 | 254.2#44 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.5#101 | 149.2#64 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 257.2#124 | 255.2#120 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83#67 | 1.17#110 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#107 | 0.50#121 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#124 | 2.83#17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#88 | 3.17#134 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#92 | +0.07#80 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#98 | +0.08#92 |
| Success rate | 40.8%#96 | 41.0%#93 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.2%#107 | 42.2%#89 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9%#114 | 13.5%#52 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6%#90 | 12.1%#79 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0%#66 | 15.7%#30 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#87 | 15.9%#124 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.85#89 | 4.07#73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.24#103 | 3.48#43 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#124 | own 28#102 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#119 | own 29#79 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.7#89 | 63.5#91 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#75 | +0.02#95 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#104 | +0.10#71 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#72 | +0.05#79 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14#103 | +0.12#96 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.0%#41 | 40.8%#99 |
| Passing success rate | 35.0%#123 | 40.8%#83 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5%#91 | 18.8%#95 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4%#102 | 29.4%#94 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3%#53 | 30.3%#82 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4%#115 | 33.8%#121 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.3%#117 | 36.1%#48 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.4%#133 | 57.9%#93 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.3%#91 | 60.9%#82 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri State schedule · Delaware schedule · all Week 8 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.