Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Alabama 35, Southern Miss 30 at M. M. Roberts Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: South Alabama wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 65.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
South Alabama is 4-3 against the 103rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 32.4 points per game (+2.7 per game). Southern Miss is 2-5 against the 93rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-6.7 per game).
South Alabama's middle-of-the-pack offense (60th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Southern Miss's struggling defense (127th); that mismatch is where most of South Alabama's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Southern Miss's below-average offense (107th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense) against South Alabama's struggling defense (126th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Alabama by 27 and Southern Miss by 18 about 80% of the time.
Southern Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Alabama is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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South Alabama vs Southern Miss: stat comparison
| Stat | South Alabama | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.1#33 | 25.7#92 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.4#124 | 32.4#125 |
| Yards per play | 6.01#66 | 6.04#63 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.23#137 | 5.97#91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 224.4#15 | 169.3#65 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.4#95 | 251.6#42 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 173.6#95 | 243.9#136 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 256.1#124 | 206.7#72 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29#11 | 1.57#133 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#56 | 0.86#73 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#97 | 2.57#29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#19 | 1.86#72 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#52 | +0.04#95 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.23#136 | +0.05#73 |
| Success rate | 42.2%#77 | 41.4%#92 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.5%#128 | 43.0%#92 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#75 | 13.5%#52 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1%#119 | 13.1%#101 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#53 | 12.1%#114 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#34 | 12.4%#48 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.10#71 | 3.73#98 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.40#113 | 3.92#83 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#30 | own 27#118 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#114 | own 29#84 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.0#15 | 69.7#27 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#71 | +0.16#27 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#34 | -0.06#123 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.22#135 | +0.04#72 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.23#122 | +0.07#79 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.4%#71 | 47.6%#34 |
| Passing success rate | 40.6%#82 | 36.6%#117 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.5%#40 | 11.1%#3 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.1%#59 | 22.9%#134 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.5%#124 | 30.9%#89 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.8%#72 | 31.5%#131 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.1%#113 | 40.9%#93 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.0%#70 | 61.4%#72 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.6%#129 | 57.2%#56 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Alabama schedule · Southern Miss schedule · all Week 12 projections
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