2026 schedule
UCF Knights
2026 season so far
UCF is 4-3 against the 35th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.7 and allowing 23 points per game (+9.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings UCF ranks 48th of 139 FBS teams overall — 50th on offense and 49th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: vs Baylor in Week 9. We project UCF 26, Baylor 25 — UCF wins 53% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
0-1 · SOS #125
Win 73-6
Week 1
Our number· model now
UCF by 34
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final UCF by 67. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Acrisure Bounce House - at
Pittsburgh Panthers
2-0 · SOS #53
Loss 7-12
Week 2
Our number· model now
Pittsburgh by 6
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Pittsburgh by 5. 19 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN2 Acrisure Stadium - vs
Georgia State Panthers
2-1 · SOS #126
Win 44-30
Week 3
Our number· model now
UCF by 12
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
Final UCF by 14. 74 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Acrisure Bounce House - vs
TCU Horned Frogs
2-2 · SOS #55
Win 21-13
Week 4
Our number· model now
UCF by 3
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
Final UCF by 8. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 82°F, Wind 9 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KORL)FS1 Acrisure Bounce House - at
#20 Houston Cougars
4-1 · SOS #36
Loss 17-27
Week 5
Our number· model now
Houston by 8
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Houston by 10. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 88°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHOU)ESPN2 TDECU Stadium - at
#18 Oklahoma State Cowboys
4-1 · SOS #60
Loss 28-42
Week 6
Our number· model now
Oklahoma State by 1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Oklahoma State by 14. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 88°F, Wind 13 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSWO)ESPN2 Boone Pickens Stadium - vs
#2 BYU Cougars
6-1 · SOS #34
Win 39-31
Week 8
Our number· model now
BYU by 8
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
Final UCF by 8. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 73°F, Wind 13 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KORL)Fox Acrisure Bounce House - vs
Baylor Bears
4-3 · SOS #63
Fri, Oct 30, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 26-25 · 53%
Our number
UCF by 1
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 78°F, Wind 10 mph NE, 19% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTESPN Acrisure Bounce House - at
Kansas Jayhawks
3-4 · SOS #62
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 27-27 · 48%
Our number
dead even
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium - vs
Arizona State Sun Devils
4-3 · SOS #37
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 30-24 · 66%
Our number
UCF by 6
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Acrisure Bounce House - vs
Iowa State Cyclones
3-4 · SOS #29
Fri, Nov 20, 11:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 28-22 · 66%
Our number
UCF by 6
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
FS1 Acrisure Bounce House - at
Colorado Buffaloes
2-5 · SOS #21
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 29-22 · 67%
Our number
UCF by 7
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Folsom Field
Times shown in your local time
UCF Knights stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+4.5
48th in FBS
Adj. offense
28.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
24.3
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 32.7 | 45 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 23.0 | 58 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.02 | 65 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.37 | 53 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 175.4 | 58 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 203.9 | 90 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 127.6 | 34 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 242.9 | 113 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | 44 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.57 | 8 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.86 | 79 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.29 | 32 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.08 | 70 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.00 | 46 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 42.7% | 72 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.0% | 56 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.8% | 92 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.5% | 34 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.9% | 46 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.6% | 29 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.10 | 4 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.51 | 43 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 34 | 7 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 31 | 111 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.0 | 97 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.06 | 81 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.10 | 67 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.07 | 21 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.07 | 77 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 45.0% | 60 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.5% | 83 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 17.2% | 74 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 33.9% | 38 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 27.1% | 37 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 43.2% | 55 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 40.7% | 90 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 72.4% | 22 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 53.8% | 41 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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