Matchup analysis
Our model projects Kansas 27, UCF 27 at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Kansas wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 54 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
UCF is 4-3 against the 35th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.7 and allowing 23 points per game (+9.7 per game). Kansas is 3-4 against the 62nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31 and allowing 24 points per game (+7 per game).
UCF's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) meets Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UCF puts up. Kansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (51st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) meets UCF's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kansas puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UCF by 22 and Kansas by 23 about 80% of the time.
Kansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field UCF would be favoured by 1.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UCF vs Kansas: stat comparison
| Stat | UCF | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.7#45 | 31.0#55 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0#58 | 24.0#68 |
| Yards per play | 6.02#65 | 6.48#35 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.37#53 | 5.59#67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 175.4#58 | 215.6#22 |
| Net passing yards per game | 203.9#90 | 240.1#51 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.6#34 | 175.1#98 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.9#113 | 179.3#27 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#44 | 1.00#79 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.57#8 | 0.57#110 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#79 | 1.71#94 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#32 | 1.57#51 |
| Stat | UCF | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#70 | +0.09#65 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00#46 | -0.01#37 |
| Success rate | 42.7%#72 | 41.2%#96 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#56 | 38.6%#36 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#92 | 16.2%#10 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#34 | 11.5%#65 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#46 | 15.9%#26 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#29 | 14.1%#92 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.10#4 | 3.92#89 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51#43 | 3.21#19 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#7 | own 27#121 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#111 | own 32#129 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0#97 | 70.3#21 |
| Stat | UCF | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#81 | +0.12#44 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#67 | +0.05#82 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#21 | -0.04#35 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#77 | +0.02#55 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.0%#60 | 44.7%#65 |
| Passing success rate | 40.5%#83 | 37.3%#113 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.2%#74 | 11.6%#5 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.9%#38 | 24.8%#125 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1%#37 | 28.4%#51 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.2%#55 | 36.4%#104 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.7%#90 | 33.0%#21 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.4%#22 | 67.9%#39 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.8%#41 | 56.0%#49 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UCF schedule · Kansas schedule · all Week 10 projections
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