Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UCF 26.1, Oklahoma State 23.2 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: UCF wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 49.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
UCF is 3-2, scoring 32.4 and allowing 17.6 points per game (+14.8 per game). Oklahoma State (No. 18) is 3-1, scoring 37.3 and allowing 19.8 points per game (+17.5 per game).
UCF's middle-of-the-pack offense (61st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) meets Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (65th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UCF puts up. UCF's strong defense (30th) should limit Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UCF by 25 and Oklahoma State by 20 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UCF is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: UCF 28, Oklahoma State 42. Oklahoma State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UCF / Oklahoma State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma State -10 → Oklahoma State -10.25 | 53.25 → 53.5 | +315 / -412.5 |
| Bovada | Oklahoma State -10.5 → Oklahoma State -10 | 54 → 53.5 | +320 / -430 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma State -9.5 → Oklahoma State -10.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | +310 / -395 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UCF -3 | 49.3 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma State -10.5 | 53.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma State -8 | 53.8 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma State win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference -35 pts
- Margin
- model UCF -2.9 · market Oklahoma State -10.25 · difference -13.1 pts (Oklahoma State view)
- Total
- model 49.3 · market 53.5 · difference -4.2
Model margin is 13.1 pts more toward UCF than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UCF 26.1, Oklahoma State 23.2 | UCF 58%wrong winner | 16.9 | 20.7 |
| New formula | UCF 25.7, Oklahoma State 23.0 | UCF 57%wrong winner | 16.6 | 21.3 |
Final: UCF 28, Oklahoma State 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UCF vs Oklahoma State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UCF | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4#60 | 37.3#31 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.6#32 | 19.8#47 |
| Yards per play | 6.61#47 | 7.44#7 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.09#38 | 5.33#59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186.4#55 | 225.8#25 |
| Net passing yards per game | 181.0#107 | 348.8#4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 132.2#46 | 170.5#97 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 230.4#100 | 161.5#25 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80#64 | 1.75#134 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#5 | 0.75#97 |
| Sacks per game | 2.20#52 | 2.00#70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.40#50 | 0.75#13 |
| Stat | UCF | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#107 | +0.10#69 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#20 | -0.04#28 |
| Success rate | 39.3%#113 | 47.5%#32 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.9%#38 | 38.5%#45 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#31 | 15.2%#23 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1%#12 | 10.2%#28 |
| Havoc rate | 15.8%#28 | 14.3%#64 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#87 | 10.4%#16 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.07#9 | 4.10#71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.93#10 | 3.19#21 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#18 | own 28#92 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#103 | own 32#114 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.6#134 | 77.3#4 |
| Stat | UCF | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#55 | +0.07#80 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08#119 | +0.12#61 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#14 | +0.04#77 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#44 | -0.15#14 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8%#92 | 46.2%#61 |
| Passing success rate | 36.9%#115 | 48.9%#29 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#78 | 15.9%#61 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.6%#86 | 31.7%#72 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.1%#37 | 20.8%#5 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.2%#93 | 36.0%#108 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.0%#83 | 29.1%#14 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.4%#49 | 48.8%#121 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 44.4%#20 | 41.8%#13 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UCF schedule · Oklahoma State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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