Matchup analysis
Our model projects UCF 29, Colorado 22 at Folsom Field in Week 13. That is a lean: UCF wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.8 points and 51.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
UCF is 4-3 against the 30th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.7 and allowing 23 points per game (+9.7 per game). Colorado is 2-5 against the 15th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 30.1 points per game (-10 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: UCF's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) against Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th). UCF's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th) should limit Colorado's below-average offense (99th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UCF by 29 and Colorado by 16 about 80% of the time.
Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UCF is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UCF vs Colorado: stat comparison
| Stat | UCF | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.7#45 | 20.1#121 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0#58 | 30.1#112 |
| Yards per play | 6.02#65 | 6.04#64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.37#53 | 5.63#71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 175.4#58 | 144.6#103 |
| Net passing yards per game | 203.9#90 | 267.6#26 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.6#34 | 150.7#66 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.9#113 | 249.9#121 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#44 | 1.57#134 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.57#8 | 0.86#75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#79 | 2.29#52 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#32 | 2.14#94 |
| Stat | UCF | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#70 | +0.02#103 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00#46 | +0.02#59 |
| Success rate | 42.7%#72 | 40.6%#102 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#56 | 40.1%#61 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#92 | 13.9%#37 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#34 | 13.9%#114 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#46 | 18.0%#8 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#29 | 13.2%#68 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.10#4 | 3.41#117 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51#43 | 3.65#52 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#7 | own 26#132 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#111 | own 33#133 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0#97 | 68.3#45 |
| Stat | UCF | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#81 | -0.04#120 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#67 | +0.07#75 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#21 | -0.09#14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#77 | +0.12#93 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.0%#60 | 40.5%#101 |
| Passing success rate | 40.5%#83 | 40.8%#79 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.2%#74 | 15.8%#45 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.9%#38 | 32.4%#52 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1%#37 | 33.3%#115 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.2%#55 | 39.8%#86 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.7%#90 | 41.2%#97 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.4%#22 | 55.0%#108 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.8%#41 | 42.1%#10 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UCF schedule · Colorado schedule · all Week 13 projections
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