Matchup analysis
Our model projects UCF 26, Baylor 25 at Acrisure Bounce House in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: UCF wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.2 points and 51.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Baylor is 4-3 against the 62nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.1 and allowing 16.1 points per game (+13 per game). UCF is 4-3 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.7 and allowing 23 points per game (+9.7 per game).
Baylor's middle-of-the-pack offense (52nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.5 points against an average defense) meets UCF's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Baylor puts up. UCF's middle-of-the-pack offense (51st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.7 points against an average defense) meets Baylor's strong defense (38th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UCF puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Baylor by 21 and UCF by 24 about 80% of the time.
UCF gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Baylor would be favoured by 0.9. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Baylor / UCF) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UCF -1.5 | 48.5 | -1 / -119 |
| FanDuel | UCF -1.5 | 48.5 | -102 / -118 |
| DraftKings | UCF -1.5 | 47.5 | -102 / -118 |
| BetRivers | UCF -1.5 | 48.5 | -103 / -121 |
| theScore Bet | UCF -1.5 | 48.5 | +100 / -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | UCF -1.5 | 48.5 | +100 / -120 |
| BetMGM | UCF -1.5 | 48.5 | -102 / -118 |
| Pinnacle | UCF -1 | 47.5 | +101 / -116 |
| Bovada | UCF -1.5 | 47.5 | +100 / -120 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCF win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UCF -1 | 51.4 | 53% |
| Market consensus | UCF -1.5 | 48.5 | 52% |
| Blended projection | UCF -1.5 | 49.6 | 54% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCF win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 52% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model UCF -1.2 · market UCF -1.5 · difference -0.3 pts (UCF view)
- Total
- model 51.4 · market 48.5 · difference +2.9
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies UCF 50%.
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Baylor vs UCF: stat comparison
| Stat | Baylor | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.1#67 | 32.7#45 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.1#19 | 23.0#58 |
| Yards per play | 5.60#107 | 6.02#65 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.70#11 | 5.37#53 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.4#76 | 175.4#58 |
| Net passing yards per game | 273.9#20 | 203.9#90 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.9#28 | 127.6#34 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.3#88 | 242.9#113 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#126 | 0.71#44 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.57#10 | 1.57#8 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00#2 | 1.86#79 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#83 | 1.29#32 |
| Stat | Baylor | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#113 | +0.08#70 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#7 | +0.00#46 |
| Success rate | 38.4%#123 | 42.7%#72 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9%#14 | 40.0%#56 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#83 | 11.8%#92 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#33 | 10.5%#34 |
| Havoc rate | 18.7%#4 | 14.9%#46 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#85 | 11.6%#29 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.16#129 | 5.10#4 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.05#10 | 3.51#43 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#16 | own 34#7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#63 | own 31#111 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 78.3#3 | 63.0#97 |
| Stat | Baylor | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#122 | +0.06#81 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#86 | +0.10#67 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11#9 | -0.07#21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11#20 | +0.07#77 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#104 | 45.0%#60 |
| Passing success rate | 36.9%#115 | 40.5%#83 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#51 | 17.2%#74 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#61 | 33.9%#38 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.9%#24 | 27.1%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#84 | 43.2%#55 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7%#40 | 40.7%#90 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.3%#125 | 72.4%#22 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.1%#4 | 53.8%#41 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Baylor schedule · UCF schedule · all Week 9 projections
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