Matchup analysis
Our model projects UCF 30, Arizona State 24 at Acrisure Bounce House in Week 11. That is a lean: UCF wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.3 points and 54 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Arizona State is 4-3 against the 57th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.9 and allowing 29.9 points per game (+1 per game). UCF is 4-3 against the 30th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.7 and allowing 23 points per game (+9.7 per game).
Expect Arizona State to find it hard going: UCF's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th) outranks Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense). UCF's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th); that mismatch is where most of UCF's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona State by 16 and UCF by 29 about 80% of the time.
UCF gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UCF by about 4.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Arizona State vs UCF: stat comparison
| Stat | Arizona State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.9#56 | 32.7#45 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9#110 | 23.0#58 |
| Yards per play | 6.37#44 | 6.02#65 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46#58 | 5.37#53 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.6#75 | 175.4#58 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.3#24 | 203.9#90 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.0#74 | 127.6#34 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.6#63 | 242.9#113 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#81 | 0.71#44 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#125 | 1.57#8 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#68 | 1.86#79 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#119 | 1.29#32 |
| Stat | Arizona State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#111 | +0.08#70 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#65 | +0.00#46 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#80 | 42.7%#72 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#52 | 40.0%#56 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.3%#19 | 11.8%#92 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#55 | 10.5%#34 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#54 | 14.9%#46 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8%#132 | 11.6%#29 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#55 | 5.10#4 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.56#44 | 3.51#43 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#79 | own 34#7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#131 | own 31#111 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#46 | 63.0#97 |
| Stat | Arizona State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#115 | +0.06#81 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#94 | +0.10#67 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#78 | -0.07#21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#56 | +0.07#77 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1%#98 | 45.0%#60 |
| Passing success rate | 42.8%#60 | 40.5%#83 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#93 | 17.2%#74 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.9%#39 | 33.9%#38 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#42 | 27.1%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.2%#132 | 43.2%#55 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.0%#51 | 40.7%#90 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#54 | 72.4%#22 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.8%#42 | 53.8%#41 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arizona State schedule · UCF schedule · all Week 11 projections
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