Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UCF 29.6, Georgia State 24.3 at Acrisure Bounce House in Week 3. That is a lean: UCF wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Georgia State is 2-0, scoring 45 and allowing 13.5 points per game (+31.5 per game). UCF is 1-1, scoring 40 and allowing 9 points per game (+31 per game).
Expect Georgia State to find it hard going: UCF's strong defense (26th) outranks Georgia State's middle-of-the-pack offense (81st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense). UCF's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Georgia State's below-average defense (106th); that mismatch is where most of UCF's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia State by 17 and UCF by 28 about 80% of the time.
UCF gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UCF by about 3.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Georgia State 30, UCF 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.7 points and the total by 20.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia State / UCF) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UCF -20.75 → UCF -17.5 | 50 → 50.25 | +725 / -1275 |
| Bovada | UCF -20.5 → UCF -17.5 | 50.5 → 50 | +775 / -1500 |
| DraftKings | UCF -21 → UCF -17.5 | 49.5 → 50.5 | +675 / -1050 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCF win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UCF -5.5 | 53.9 | 64% |
| Market consensus | UCF -17.5 | 50.3 | 88% |
| Blended projection | UCF -15.5 | 51.2 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCF win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference -25 pts
- Margin
- model UCF -5.3 · market UCF -17.5 · difference -12.2 pts (UCF view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 50.25 · difference +3.6
Model margin is 12.2 pts more toward Georgia State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia State 24.3, UCF 29.6 | UCF 64%right winner | 8.7 | 20.1 |
| New formula | Georgia State 17.8, UCF 35.1 | UCF 86%right winner | 3.3 | 21.0 |
Final: Georgia State 30, UCF 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia State vs UCF: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Georgia State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.0#28 | 40.0#39 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.5#39 | 9.0#14 |
| Yards per play | 7.46#23 | 7.58#21 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.97#52 | 4.19#20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 245.0#22 | 218.0#40 |
| Net passing yards per game | 266.0#43 | 199.0#95 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 94.0#25 | 115.5#54 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 177.0#55 | 157.0#36 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#54 | 0.50#37 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#108 | 1.00#55 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#28 | 2.00#58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.00#7 | 1.50#66 |
| Stat | Georgia State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#20 | +0.04#91 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#64 | -0.19#7 |
| Success rate | 47.6%#26 | 42.0%#89 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.4%#47 | 31.5%#11 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6%#23 | 14.1%#44 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#97 | 9.3%#26 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#50 | 17.0%#28 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.1%#38 | 15.2%#108 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.46#48 | 4.88#24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.82#70 | 3.30#34 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#20 | own 37#16 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#16 | own 28#61 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.5#47 | 55.0#124 |
| Stat | Georgia State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#32 | +0.07#69 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#32 | +0.03#87 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#55 | -0.27#4 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#83 | -0.09#29 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.7%#38 | 42.4%#86 |
| Passing success rate | 57.8%#16 | 41.2%#84 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2%#38 | 14.3%#29 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.9%#12 | 27.6%#102 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.1%#30 | 27.2%#55 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.0%#31 | 42.9%#69 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.0%#22 | 23.5%#15 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.6%#62 | 78.8%#22 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.7%#54 | 65.3%#89 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia State schedule · UCF schedule · all Week 3 projections
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