Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UCF 43.5, Bethune-Cookman 12.3 at Acrisure Bounce House in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: UCF wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31.2 points and 55.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Bethune-Cookman has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. UCF has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Bethune-Cookman plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why UCF's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UCF by 9 and UCF by 54 about 80% of the time.
UCF gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UCF by about 29.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Bethune-Cookman 6, UCF 73. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 35.8 points and the total by 23.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bethune-Cookman / UCF) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UCF -41.5 → UCF -43.5 | 58.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | UCF -41.5 → UCF -43.5 | 58.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCF win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UCF -31 | 55.8 | 98% |
| Market consensus | UCF -43.5 | 58.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | UCF -41.5 | 58.5 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCF win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model UCF -31.2 · market UCF -43.5 · difference -12.3 pts (UCF view)
- Total
- model 55.8 · market 58.5 · difference -2.7
Model margin is 12.3 pts more toward Bethune-Cookman than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bethune-Cookman 12.3, UCF 43.5 | UCF 98%right winner | 35.8 | 23.2 |
| New formula | Bethune-Cookman 12.0, UCF 44.3 | UCF 97%right winner | 34.7 | 22.7 |
Final: Bethune-Cookman 6, UCF 73. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bethune-Cookman vs UCF: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.7 | 24.3#90 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.7 | 23.6#57 |
| Yards per play | 6.34 | 6.09#50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.74 | 5.37#36 |
| Rushing yards per game | 174.1 | 166.8#70 |
| Net passing yards per game | 235.3 | 229.5#59 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 209.3 | 167.6#80 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.4 | 186.2#23 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40 | 1.50#119 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.90 | 0.92#84 |
| Sacks per game | 1.70 | 2.00#69 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 1.67#54 |
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.02#102 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | -0.06#34 |
| Success rate | 42.1% | 39.6%#107 |
| Success rate allowed | 48.6% | 43.4%#94 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 11.9%#83 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7% | 11.2%#40 |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 12.3%#74 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 12.2%#76 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.73 | 3.67#101 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.48 | 3.51#32 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | own 28#108 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | own 30#88 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6 | 65.1#85 |
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.02#94 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.02#92 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.06#110 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | -0.20#8 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.1% | 39.4%#105 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0% | 39.0%#95 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 22.2%#123 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 24.1%#126 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 24.8%#12 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.2% | 36.4%#108 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.1% | 38.0%#44 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 30.8% | 60.0%#74 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.9% | 69.3%#120 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bethune-Cookman schedule · UCF schedule · all Week 1 projections
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