Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected BYU 29.6, UCF 18.9 at Acrisure Bounce House in Week 8. That is a solid edge: BYU wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.7 points and 48.5 combined points.
BYU (No. 2) is 6-0, scoring 33.5 and allowing 15.2 points per game (+18.3 per game). UCF is 3-3, scoring 31.7 and allowing 21.7 points per game (+10 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: BYU's strong offense (18th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) against UCF's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th). BYU's strong defense (15th) should limit UCF's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between BYU by 33 and UCF by 12 about 80% of the time.
UCF gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. BYU is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: BYU 31, UCF 39. UCF won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 18.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (BYU / UCF) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | BYU -7.5 | 43.5 | -310 / +250 |
| Opening line | BYU -9.5 | 45.5 | -375 / +295 |
| DraftKings | BYU -7.5 | 43.5 | -305 / +245 |
| FanDuel | BYU -7.5 | 44.5 | -320 / +255 |
| BetRivers | BYU -7.5 | 43.5 | -345 / +260 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCF win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | BYU -10.5 | 48.5 | 24% |
| Market consensus | BYU -7.5 | 43.5 | 26% |
| Blended projection | BYU -8 | 45.1 | 29% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCF win probability
- model 24% · market (no-vig) 26% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model BYU -10.7 · market BYU -7.5 · difference -3.2 pts (UCF view)
- Total
- model 48.5 · market 43.5 · difference +5.0
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward BYU than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | BYU 29.6, UCF 18.9 | BYU 76%wrong winner | 18.7 | 21.5 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: BYU 31, UCF 39. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
BYU vs UCF: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | BYU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.4#32 | 24.3#90 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.1#19 | 23.6#57 |
| Yards per play | 6.16#43 | 6.09#50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.42#40 | 5.37#36 |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.1#40 | 166.8#70 |
| Net passing yards per game | 222.0#75 | 229.5#59 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.4#29 | 167.6#80 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.6#61 | 186.2#23 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#19 | 1.50#119 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#19 | 0.92#84 |
| Sacks per game | 2.07#64 | 2.00#69 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.07#11 | 1.67#54 |
| Stat | BYU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#32 | -0.02#102 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#46 | -0.06#34 |
| Success rate | 45.4%#35 | 39.6%#107 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#46 | 43.4%#94 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#27 | 11.9%#83 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2%#66 | 11.2%#40 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#71 | 12.3%#74 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4%#49 | 12.2%#76 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#40 | 3.67#101 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.24#15 | 3.51#32 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#35 | own 28#108 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#87 | own 30#88 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6#62 | 65.1#85 |
| Stat | BYU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#22 | -0.02#94 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#52 | -0.02#92 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#59 | +0.06#110 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#46 | -0.20#8 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.6%#24 | 39.4%#105 |
| Passing success rate | 42.9%#50 | 39.0%#95 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.0%#20 | 22.2%#123 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8%#79 | 24.1%#126 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.7%#23 | 24.8%#12 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.3%#47 | 36.4%#108 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.0%#15 | 38.0%#44 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.7%#56 | 60.0%#74 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 41.5%#6 | 69.3%#120 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: BYU schedule · UCF schedule · all Week 8 projections
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