Matchup analysis
Our model projects UCF 28, Iowa State 22 at Acrisure Bounce House in Week 12. That is a lean: UCF wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.4 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Iowa State is 3-4 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.9 and allowing 24.1 points per game (+1.8 per game). UCF is 4-3 against the 35th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.7 and allowing 23 points per game (+9.7 per game).
UCF's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th) should limit Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense). UCF's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) meets Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack defense (56th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UCF puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa State by 16 and UCF by 29 about 80% of the time.
UCF gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UCF by about 4.3. The game is on FS1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Iowa State vs UCF: stat comparison
| Stat | Iowa State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.9#90 | 32.7#45 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1#70 | 23.0#58 |
| Yards per play | 5.65#99 | 6.02#65 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.17#107 | 5.37#53 |
| Rushing yards per game | 174.1#60 | 175.4#58 |
| Net passing yards per game | 169.4#122 | 203.9#90 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 166.4#91 | 127.6#34 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.9#84 | 242.9#113 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#17 | 0.71#44 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#90 | 1.57#8 |
| Sacks per game | 1.43#110 | 1.86#79 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.71#59 | 1.29#32 |
| Stat | Iowa State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#71 | +0.08#70 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#84 | +0.00#46 |
| Success rate | 38.7%#121 | 42.7%#72 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.4%#83 | 40.0%#56 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#58 | 11.8%#92 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#73 | 10.5%#34 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#98 | 14.9%#46 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.0%#133 | 11.6%#29 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.21#53 | 5.10#4 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.80#67 | 3.51#43 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#124 | own 34#7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#89 | own 31#111 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.9#116 | 63.0#97 |
| Stat | Iowa State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#65 | +0.06#81 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#73 | +0.10#67 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#63 | -0.07#21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#94 | +0.07#77 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.9%#114 | 45.0%#60 |
| Passing success rate | 38.4%#107 | 40.5%#83 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9%#122 | 17.2%#74 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.0%#104 | 33.9%#38 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.9%#23 | 27.1%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.5%#134 | 43.2%#55 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#41 | 40.7%#90 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#41 | 72.4%#22 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.0%#94 | 53.8%#41 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Iowa State schedule · UCF schedule · all Week 12 projections
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