Matchup analysis
Our model projects Toledo 35, Bowling Green 18 at Glass Bowl in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Toledo wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.1 points and 52.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Bowling Green is 2-6 against the 99th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.8 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-11 per game). Toledo is 6-2 against the 114th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 25.4 points per game (+12 per game).
Toledo's below-average defense (87th) should limit Bowling Green's struggling offense (134th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) against Bowling Green's below-average defense (106th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bowling Green by 5 and Toledo by 40 about 80% of the time.
Toledo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Toledo by about 15. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bowling Green vs Toledo: stat comparison
| Stat | Bowling Green | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8#130 | 37.4#16 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8#109 | 25.4#85 |
| Yards per play | 5.10#128 | 6.74#21 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34#118 | 4.96#22 |
| Rushing yards per game | 112.8#134 | 192.0#41 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.9#117 | 284.1#13 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 227.4#134 | 148.0#62 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 157.1#11 | 193.1#46 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#72 | 0.50#27 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#103 | 1.13#44 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#46 | 2.75#18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#48 | 0.75#7 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#122 | +0.13#47 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#97 | -0.04#32 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#83 | 43.5%#62 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.7%#126 | 35.4%#17 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2%#127 | 14.2%#33 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#93 | 10.7%#40 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#71 | 15.2%#39 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6%#105 | 12.0%#40 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.43#116 | 3.93#88 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.04#94 | 3.73#61 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#96 | own 33#12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#110 | own 31#103 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.4#136 | 70.6#18 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#135 | +0.07#75 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#77 | +0.18#40 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#126 | -0.06#25 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#54 | -0.01#43 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.6%#116 | 43.7%#75 |
| Passing success rate | 44.9%#46 | 46.9%#32 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4%#118 | 16.8%#69 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7%#115 | 30.1%#87 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2%#94 | 26.9%#35 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.3%#64 | 44.3%#42 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%#47 | 35.2%#37 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.2%#104 | 64.4%#61 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.0%#63 | 59.1%#73 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bowling Green schedule · Toledo schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.