Matchup analysis
Our model projects Utah 27, TCU 19 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Utah wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.6 points and 45.7 combined points.
Utah (No. 6) is 7-0 against the 71st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 14.6 points per game (+22.8 per game). TCU is 3-4 against the 45th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 13.9 points per game (+9.5 per game).
Utah's strong offense (17th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets TCU's strong defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Utah puts up. Expect TCU to find it hard going: Utah's strong defense (19th) outranks TCU's below-average offense (85th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah by 30 and TCU by 15 about 80% of the time.
TCU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Utah is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Utah vs TCU: stat comparison
| Stat | Utah | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.4#14 | 23.4#101 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.6#9 | 13.9#6 |
| Yards per play | 6.95#14 | 6.24#53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.07#31 | 4.59#8 |
| Rushing yards per game | 225.9#14 | 129.6#120 |
| Net passing yards per game | 256.6#38 | 289.6#10 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 101.9#4 | 117.4#21 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.7#90 | 156.1#10 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#78 | 1.43#130 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#35 | 0.86#67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#80 | 2.43#36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#45 | 2.86#123 |
| Stat | Utah | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#19 | +0.01#112 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#34 | -0.06#21 |
| Success rate | 50.5%#9 | 42.0%#79 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9%#12 | 34.6%#8 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5%#16 | 11.1%#110 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.5%#15 | 8.5%#7 |
| Havoc rate | 17.3%#12 | 13.4%#82 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#115 | 13.5%#75 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.82#18 | 3.49#112 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.17#15 | 3.80#66 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#38 | own 31#45 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#21 | own 26#20 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.4#32 | 67.1#57 |
| Stat | Utah | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#17 | -0.14#138 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#24 | +0.13#56 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#38 | -0.04#31 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#44 | -0.09#25 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.0%#19 | 39.4%#110 |
| Passing success rate | 52.0%#10 | 44.1%#53 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#126 | 18.1%#85 |
| Passing-down success rate | 41.7%#7 | 25.3%#123 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6%#44 | 25.2%#15 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 54.0%#9 | 43.8%#49 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%#31 | 32.3%#16 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#28 | 57.7%#95 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.1%#22 | 58.8%#70 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah schedule · TCU schedule · all Week 12 projections
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