Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buffalo 25, Central Michigan 24 at Broadview Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Buffalo wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 48.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Central Michigan is 3-5 against the 71st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 25.9 points per game (-8 per game). Buffalo is 5-3 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.6 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-2.8 per game).
Central Michigan's struggling offense (127th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18 points against an average defense) meets Buffalo's struggling defense (119th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Central Michigan puts up. Central Michigan's below-average defense (99th) should limit Buffalo's struggling offense (122nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Michigan by 22 and Buffalo by 24 about 80% of the time.
Buffalo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Central Michigan would be favoured by 1.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Central Michigan vs Buffalo: stat comparison
| Stat | Central Michigan | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.9#132 | 22.6#107 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9#89 | 25.4#84 |
| Yards per play | 5.07#131 | 4.68#137 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#86 | 5.89#85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 182.5#55 | 191.6#42 |
| Net passing yards per game | 116.5#134 | 149.0#130 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 188.5#109 | 160.0#81 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.3#35 | 226.4#99 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#74 | 1.13#100 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#43 | 0.50#122 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#74 | 1.50#107 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25#98 | 2.38#105 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#116 | -0.04#127 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#70 | +0.07#81 |
| Success rate | 38.9%#119 | 36.9%#131 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.6%#129 | 39.8%#54 |
| Explosive play rate | 6.5%#138 | 9.4%#133 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#72 | 12.1%#80 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#125 | 13.4%#84 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#64 | 13.3%#72 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44#115 | 3.71#100 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.35#110 | 3.84#73 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#103 | own 30#58 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#117 | own 29#79 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0#127 | 72.8#8 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#25 | +0.01#107 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.27#138 | -0.10#127 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17#130 | +0.03#68 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#23 | +0.10#89 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.5%#36 | 37.7%#120 |
| Passing success rate | 25.2%#138 | 34.0%#130 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.5%#9 | 16.1%#53 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.6%#131 | 24.4%#129 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.2%#118 | 24.6%#12 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1%#99 | 39.6%#87 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.5%#134 | 36.0%#42 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.5%#71 | 48.3%#124 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.9%#133 | 66.5%#99 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Michigan schedule · Buffalo schedule · all Week 12 projections
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