Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oklahoma State 30, Arizona State 29 at Mountain America Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Oklahoma State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 58.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Oklahoma State (No. 24) is 5-2 against the 60th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+16.3 per game). Arizona State is 4-3 against the 57th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.9 and allowing 29.9 points per game (+1 per game).
Oklahoma State's strong offense (37th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th); that mismatch is where most of Oklahoma State's projected points come from. Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) meets Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arizona State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma State by 23 and Arizona State by 22 about 80% of the time.
Arizona State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Oklahoma State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Oklahoma State vs Arizona State: stat comparison
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0#8 | 30.9#56 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7#65 | 29.9#110 |
| Yards per play | 7.57#5 | 6.37#44 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.81#84 | 5.46#58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.1#39 | 164.6#75 |
| Net passing yards per game | 347.6#2 | 268.3#24 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 152.0#67 | 158.0#74 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.1#105 | 204.6#63 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#125 | 1.00#81 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#57 | 0.43#125 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#62 | 2.00#68 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#25 | 2.71#119 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#21 | +0.01#111 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#98 | +0.03#65 |
| Success rate | 49.7%#13 | 42.0%#80 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#93 | 39.8%#52 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.7%#7 | 15.3%#19 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#45 | 11.1%#55 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#104 | 14.7%#54 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#27 | 16.8%#132 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.40#43 | 4.18#55 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.90#79 | 3.56#44 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#72 | own 29#79 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#87 | own 33#131 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.7#11 | 68.0#46 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#57 | -0.01#115 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#19 | +0.03#94 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#62 | +0.05#78 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#112 | +0.02#56 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.9%#31 | 41.1%#98 |
| Passing success rate | 51.2%#14 | 42.8%#60 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#22 | 18.7%#93 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.1%#21 | 33.9%#39 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.0%#25 | 27.5%#42 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.3%#94 | 31.2%#132 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#70 | 37.0%#51 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8%#113 | 65.2%#54 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.2%#96 | 53.8%#42 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma State schedule · Arizona State schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.