Matchup analysis
Our model projects Sam Houston 24, Middle Tennessee 23 at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Sam Houston wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 46.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Middle Tennessee is 4-4 against the 125th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-5.7 per game). Sam Houston is 1-7 against the 112th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18 and allowing 25.1 points per game (-7.1 per game).
Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (124th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.4 points against an average defense) meets Sam Houston's struggling defense (123rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Middle Tennessee puts up. Sam Houston's struggling offense (137th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.7 points against an average defense) meets Middle Tennessee's struggling defense (131st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Sam Houston puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Middle Tennessee by 22 and Sam Houston by 23 about 80% of the time.
Sam Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Middle Tennessee would be favoured by 1.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston: stat comparison
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.9#100 | 18.0#131 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6#108 | 25.1#78 |
| Yards per play | 6.00#67 | 5.53#109 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.59#127 | 5.31#50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.6#109 | 104.7#136 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.9#85 | 242.0#49 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 204.1#126 | 213.0#128 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 208.3#74 | 134.1#2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29#10 | 0.86#66 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#55 | 0.71#98 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#124 | 1.71#100 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#17 | 2.43#111 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#88 | -0.05#129 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#93 | -0.05#28 |
| Success rate | 41.5%#91 | 40.1%#110 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3%#107 | 40.0%#57 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#72 | 11.0%#116 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#95 | 12.5%#85 |
| Havoc rate | 10.8%#131 | 15.4%#35 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#67 | 18.0%#136 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79#94 | 2.89#133 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.31#109 | 3.82#71 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#109 | own 28#101 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#47 | own 30#88 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.9#133 | 62.7#101 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#106 | -0.07#128 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#74 | -0.03#116 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#117 | +0.04#73 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#62 | -0.16#8 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.6%#95 | 36.4%#130 |
| Passing success rate | 40.7%#81 | 37.9%#110 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.3%#104 | 22.5%#133 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3%#69 | 28.6%#100 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#80 | 27.8%#48 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 27.8%#137 | 35.6%#110 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#86 | 31.6%#13 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.2%#79 | 49.3%#122 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.9%#92 | 58.7%#69 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Middle Tennessee schedule · Sam Houston schedule · all Week 12 projections
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