Matchup analysis
Our model projects Kennesaw State 22, Florida International 21 at Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Kennesaw State wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.2 points and 43.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Florida International is 3-4 against the 133rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+3.8 per game). Kennesaw State is 2-6 against the 88th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-2.4 per game).
Expect Florida International to find it hard going: Kennesaw State's below-average defense (103rd) outranks Florida International's struggling offense (126th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.1 points against an average defense). Florida International's middle-of-the-pack defense (76th) should limit Kennesaw State's below-average offense (118th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida International by 22 and Kennesaw State by 23 about 80% of the time.
Kennesaw State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Florida International would be favoured by 1.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Florida International vs Kennesaw State: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida International | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.1#122 | 23.0#104 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3#21 | 25.4#83 |
| Yards per play | 5.42#115 | 5.67#98 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.93#21 | 5.94#89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.4#115 | 138.6#112 |
| Net passing yards per game | 241.3#50 | 231.4#63 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 132.0#40 | 158.0#75 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 165.4#15 | 224.1#98 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#111 | 0.86#61 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#61 | 0.43#127 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#73 | 0.86#135 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#21 | 1.14#23 |
| Stat | Florida International | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#124 | +0.04#94 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#27 | +0.08#89 |
| Success rate | 39.5%#115 | 43.2%#68 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.1%#33 | 43.4%#99 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#88 | 10.9%#117 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0%#77 | 12.1%#79 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0%#44 | 11.4%#123 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#61 | 10.3%#14 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.95#132 | 4.06#75 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.93#6 | 4.06#95 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#52 | own 25#133 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#123 | own 30#92 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.1#35 | 65.3#73 |
| Stat | Florida International | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#126 | +0.05#84 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#95 | +0.03#93 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#40 | -0.01#46 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#33 | +0.17#108 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.6%#124 | 43.4%#79 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6%#68 | 43.1%#57 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#102 | 21.1%#124 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2%#57 | 29.8%#95 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.1%#27 | 32.9%#109 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.2%#23 | 41.6%#67 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.1%#3 | 37.6%#55 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.0%#137 | 57.8%#93 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 27.8%#1 | 67.7%#110 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida International schedule · Kennesaw State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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