Matchup analysis
Our model projects Indiana 31, Washington 17 at Husky Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Indiana wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.6 points and 47.9 combined points.
Indiana (No. 4) is 7-1 against the 28th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.6 and allowing 12 points per game (+21.6 per game). Washington is 4-3 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+5.2 per game).
Indiana's elite offense (9th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Washington's strong defense (40th); that mismatch is where most of Indiana's projected points come from. Expect Washington to find it hard going: Indiana's elite defense (1st) outranks Washington's strong offense (40th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Indiana by 37 and Washington by 8 about 80% of the time.
Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Indiana is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Indiana vs Washington: stat comparison
| Stat | Indiana | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6#38 | 27.9#76 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0#2 | 22.7#57 |
| Yards per play | 7.15#9 | 6.08#61 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.55#6 | 5.47#62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.1#32 | 122.4#127 |
| Net passing yards per game | 225.1#67 | 262.6#32 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 102.5#6 | 141.3#51 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.3#34 | 205.9#69 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#6 | 0.86#59 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#39 | 1.43#14 |
| Sacks per game | 3.50#5 | 1.86#82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#40 | 3.00#128 |
| Stat | Indiana | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#41 | +0.06#83 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#8 | -0.01#40 |
| Success rate | 45.0%#47 | 43.9%#60 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9%#13 | 39.7%#49 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.7%#6 | 14.0%#35 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#25 | 10.9%#43 |
| Havoc rate | 15.9%#27 | 16.8%#14 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#32 | 13.3%#71 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.31#49 | 4.36#46 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.87#5 | 3.95#85 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#20 | own 28#104 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#30 | own 30#97 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.5#124 | 63.3#95 |
| Stat | Indiana | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#83 | -0.02#117 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.25#22 | +0.12#62 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.13#6 | -0.06#26 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#24 | +0.04#65 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3%#88 | 40.6%#100 |
| Passing success rate | 48.2%#24 | 46.3%#34 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.1%#19 | 20.2%#117 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.0%#42 | 27.3%#114 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3%#75 | 29.1%#64 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.7%#37 | 34.5%#118 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2%#35 | 32.6%#17 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.7%#40 | 62.1%#69 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 41.2%#7 | 61.1%#80 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Indiana schedule · Washington schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.