Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texas Tech 30, Baylor 24 at McLane Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Texas Tech wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.3 points and 53.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Texas Tech (No. 13) is 6-1 against the 74th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+15.5 per game). Baylor is 4-3 against the 63rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.1 and allowing 16.1 points per game (+13 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Texas Tech's strong offense (14th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.6 points against an average defense) against Baylor's strong defense (41st). Texas Tech's strong defense (26th) should limit Baylor's middle-of-the-pack offense (52nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Tech by 29 and Baylor by 16 about 80% of the time.
Baylor gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Texas Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Texas Tech vs Baylor: stat comparison
| Stat | Texas Tech | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.9#26 | 29.1#67 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.4#36 | 16.1#19 |
| Yards per play | 6.14#56 | 5.60#107 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.69#74 | 4.70#11 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.9#34 | 164.4#76 |
| Net passing yards per game | 215.9#80 | 273.9#20 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 125.4#29 | 124.9#28 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 274.0#132 | 216.3#88 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#122 | 1.29#126 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#4 | 1.57#10 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86#14 | 4.00#2 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#67 | 2.00#83 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#66 | +0.01#113 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#16 | -0.11#7 |
| Success rate | 47.4%#28 | 38.4%#123 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.6%#37 | 34.9%#14 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0%#34 | 12.2%#83 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#91 | 10.4%#33 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#48 | 18.7%#4 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.6%#131 | 13.8%#85 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.14#64 | 3.16#129 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40#33 | 3.05#10 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#22 | own 33#16 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#22 | own 29#63 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4#55 | 78.3#3 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#54 | -0.05#122 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#76 | +0.04#86 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#20 | -0.11#9 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#28 | -0.11#20 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.9%#22 | 40.3%#104 |
| Passing success rate | 45.8%#39 | 36.9%#115 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1%#86 | 16.0%#51 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.4%#35 | 32.0%#61 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4%#98 | 25.9%#24 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.5%#88 | 40.0%#84 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4%#78 | 35.7%#40 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.6%#114 | 48.3%#125 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1%#78 | 38.1%#4 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Tech schedule · Baylor schedule · all Week 12 projections
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