Matchup analysis
Our model projects Penn State 34, Rutgers 23 at Beaver Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Penn State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.9 points and 57.4 combined points.
Rutgers is 2-5 against the 51st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.7 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-4.6 per game). Penn State is 3-4 against the 46th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.7 and allowing 18.9 points per game (+9.8 per game).
Expect Rutgers to find it hard going: Penn State's strong defense (35th) outranks Rutgers's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.2 points against an average defense). Penn State's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Rutgers's below-average defense (104th); that mismatch is where most of Penn State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rutgers by 12 and Penn State by 33 about 80% of the time.
Penn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Penn State by about 8.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Rutgers vs Penn State: stat comparison
| Stat | Rutgers | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.7#69 | 28.7#70 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3#128 | 18.9#28 |
| Yards per play | 6.30#50 | 5.91#79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.92#132 | 5.58#66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.9#68 | 133.4#114 |
| Net passing yards per game | 250.4#43 | 259.0#36 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 206.3#127 | 178.1#99 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 215.0#85 | 150.4#7 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#138 | 1.00#84 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#93 | 1.00#53 |
| Sacks per game | 1.43#111 | 1.29#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.57#117 | 1.57#53 |
| Stat | Rutgers | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#73 | +0.01#107 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.25#137 | -0.01#41 |
| Success rate | 44.2%#53 | 40.1%#109 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.5%#136 | 40.1%#59 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7%#68 | 11.2%#107 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 17.4%#136 | 12.9%#92 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#102 | 16.0%#23 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5%#120 | 13.5%#76 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.98#83 | 4.22#52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.74#131 | 3.72#58 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#93 | own 32#29 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#121 | own 26#12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.4#67 | 66.4#68 |
| Stat | Rutgers | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#52 | -0.11#134 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#89 | +0.12#58 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.32#138 | +0.12#112 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#113 | -0.14#13 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.4%#48 | 37.2%#126 |
| Passing success rate | 41.9%#65 | 42.7%#61 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#49 | 15.7%#41 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.5%#18 | 30.6%#77 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.7%#125 | 27.6%#45 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4%#76 | 35.8%#109 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.5%#105 | 32.2%#15 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.5%#50 | 57.7%#96 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.6%#97 | 68.4%#113 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rutgers schedule · Penn State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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